The following data report total, monthly U.S. book-store sales in millions of dollars from January 2016 to March 2019. Year Month 2016 2017 2018 2019 January 1,448 $ 1,366 $ 1,251 $ 1,124 February 707 671 689 646 March 699 687 714 665 April 689 709 690 May 758 761 767 June 693 684 707 July 667 649 681 August 1,504 1,354 1,344 September 1,044 977 966 October 695 669 721 November 722 683 748 December 1,236 1,137 1,239 c. Which forecasting model is appropriate based on the data for the total U.S. bookstore sales? d. Evaluate a seasonally adjusted trend forecasting model. What is the MAD? (Round your answers to 4 decimal places.) Month Number $ Sales (Millions) Period Trend Index Forecast Absolute Error 1 1,448 1 2 707 2 3 699 3 4 689 4 5 758 5 6 693 6 7 667 7 8 1,504 8 9 1,044 9 10 695 10 11 722 11 12 1,236 12 1 1,366 13 2 671 14 3 687 15 4 709 16 5 761 17 6 684 18 7 649 19 8 1,354 20 9 977 21 10 669 22 11 683 23 12 1,137 24 1 1,251 25 2 689 26 3 714 27 4 690 28 5 767 29 6 707 30 7 681 31 8 1,344 32 9 966 33 10 721 34 11 748 35 12 1,239 36 1 1,124 37 2 646 38 3 665 39 MAD= e. What is the average monthly trend in book-store sales? (Negative amounts should be indicated by a minus sign. Round your answer to 4 decimal places.) f-1. What are the monthly indexes? (Round your answers to 4 decimal places.) Month Index 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 f-2. When are book sales the highest? f-3. When are book sales the lowest? g. Predict book sales for the next 9 months. (Round your answers to 4 decimal places.) Year Month Forecast Series 2019 April 2019 May 2019 June 2019 July 2019 August 2019 September 2019 October 2019 November 2019 December
The following data report total, monthly U.S. book-store sales in millions of dollars from January 2016 to March 2019.
Year | ||||||||
Month | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | ||||
January | 1,448 | $ | 1,366 | $ | 1,251 | $ | 1,124 | |
February | 707 | 671 | 689 | 646 | ||||
March | 699 | 687 | 714 | 665 | ||||
April | 689 | 709 | 690 | |||||
May | 758 | 761 | 767 | |||||
June | 693 | 684 | 707 | |||||
July | 667 | 649 | 681 | |||||
August | 1,504 | 1,354 | 1,344 | |||||
September | 1,044 | 977 | 966 | |||||
October | 695 | 669 | 721 | |||||
November | 722 | 683 | 748 | |||||
December | 1,236 | 1,137 | 1,239 | |||||
c. Which forecasting model is appropriate based on the data for the total U.S. bookstore sales?
d. Evaluate a seasonally adjusted trend forecasting model. What is the MAD? (Round your answers to 4 decimal places.)
Month Number | $ Sales (Millions) | Period | Trend | Index | Forecast | Absolute Error |
1 | 1,448 | 1 | ||||
2 | 707 | 2 | ||||
3 | 699 | 3 | ||||
4 | 689 | 4 | ||||
5 | 758 | 5 | ||||
6 | 693 | 6 | ||||
7 | 667 | 7 | ||||
8 | 1,504 | 8 | ||||
9 | 1,044 | 9 | ||||
10 | 695 | 10 | ||||
11 | 722 | 11 | ||||
12 | 1,236 | 12 | ||||
1 | 1,366 | 13 | ||||
2 | 671 | 14 | ||||
3 | 687 | 15 | ||||
4 | 709 | 16 | ||||
5 | 761 | 17 | ||||
6 | 684 | 18 | ||||
7 | 649 | 19 | ||||
8 | 1,354 | 20 | ||||
9 | 977 | 21 | ||||
10 | 669 | 22 | ||||
11 | 683 | 23 | ||||
12 | 1,137 | 24 | ||||
1 | 1,251 | 25 | ||||
2 | 689 | 26 | ||||
3 | 714 | 27 | ||||
4 | 690 | 28 | ||||
5 | 767 | 29 | ||||
6 | 707 | 30 | ||||
7 | 681 | 31 | ||||
8 | 1,344 | 32 | ||||
9 | 966 | 33 | ||||
10 | 721 | 34 | ||||
11 | 748 | 35 | ||||
12 | 1,239 | 36 | ||||
1 | 1,124 | 37 | ||||
2 | 646 | 38 | ||||
3 | 665 | 39 | ||||
MAD= |
e. What is the average monthly trend in book-store sales? (Negative amounts should be indicated by a minus sign. Round your answer to 4 decimal places.)
f-1. What are the monthly indexes? (Round your answers to 4 decimal places.)
Month | Index |
1 | |
2 | |
3 | |
4 | |
5 | |
6 | |
7 | |
8 | |
9 | |
10 | |
11 | |
12 |
f-2. When are book sales the highest?
f-3. When are book sales the lowest?
g. Predict book sales for the next 9 months. (Round your answers to 4 decimal places.)
Year | Month | Forecast Series |
2019 | April | |
2019 | May | |
2019 | June | |
2019 | July | |
2019 | August | |
2019 | September | |
2019 | October | |
2019 | November | |
2019 | December |
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