Following data set indicates the annual electricity consumption of Sri Lanka in Mega Watt Hours (MWh) from 1996 to 2022.
Following data set indicates the annual electricity consumption of Sri Lanka in Mega Watt Hours (MWh) from 1996 to 2022.
Year Electricity Consumption in MWh
1996 1,588
1997 1,558
1998 1,753
1999 1,408
2000 1,310
2001 1,424
2002 1,677
2003 . 1,937
2004 1,685
2005 1,488
2006 1,562
2007 1,619
2008 1,687
2009 1,841
2010 1,865
2011 1,637
2012 1,653
2013 1,699
2014 1,698
2015 1,523
2016 1,557
2017 1,795
2018 1,934
2019 2,125
2020 2,543
2021 2,616
2022 3,191
You are required to forecast the electricity demand of Sri Lanka for the year 2023 using the following smoothing methods and recommend the most appropriate value.
i. Three year moving average method
ii. Six year moving average method
iii. Single exponential smoothing method (smoothing constant = 0.2)
iv. Single exponential smoothing method (smoothing constant = 0.05)
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