Farmer Jones must determine whether to plant corn orwheat. If he plants corn and the weather is warm, he earns$8,000; if he plants corn and the weather is cold, he earns$5,000. If he plants wheat and the weather is warm, heearns $7,000; if he plants wheat and the weather is cold, heearns $6,500. In the past, 40% of all years have been coldand 60% have been warm. Before planting, Jones can pay$600 for an expert weather forecast. If the year is actuallycold, there is a 90% chance that the forecaster will predicta cold year. If the year is actually warm, there is an 80%chance that the forecaster will predict a warm year. Howcan Jones maximize his expected profits? Also find EVSIand EVPI.
Farmer Jones must determine whether to plant corn or
wheat. If he plants corn and the weather is warm, he earns
$8,000; if he plants corn and the weather is cold, he earns
$5,000. If he plants wheat and the weather is warm, he
earns $7,000; if he plants wheat and the weather is cold, he
earns $6,500. In the past, 40% of all years have been cold
and 60% have been warm. Before planting, Jones can pay
$600 for an expert weather forecast. If the year is actually
cold, there is a 90% chance that the forecaster will predict
a cold year. If the year is actually warm, there is an 80%
chance that the forecaster will predict a warm year. How
can Jones maximize his expected profits? Also find EVSI
and EVPI.
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