What is the probability that the year will be actually warm if the expert said: “will be warm”? b. What is the probability that the year will be actually warm if the expert said: “will be cold”? c. What is the probability that the year will be actually cold if the expert said: “will be cold”?
Farmer Joon must determine whether to plant corn or wheat. If he
plants corn and the weather is warm, he earns $9,000; if he plants corn and the weather is cold,
he earns $6,000. If he plants wheat and the weather is warm, he earns $7,000; if he plants wheat
and the weather is cold, he earns $6,500. In the past, 40% of all years have been cold and 60%
have been warm. Before planting, Joon can ask an expert for a weather forecast. If the year is
actually a cold, there is a 90% chance that the forecaster will predict a cold year. If the year is
actually warm, there is an 80% chance that the forecaster will predict a warm year.
a. What is the
b. What is the probability that the year will be actually warm if the expert said: “will be cold”?
c. What is the probability that the year will be actually cold if the expert said: “will be cold”?
d. What is the probability that the year will be actually cold if the expert said: “will be warm”?
e. If the expert said “will be cold”, then which crop do we plant this year?
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