Exponential Smoothing was performed on the yearly sales data to forecast. Two values of the exponential smoothing constant, alpha was used. The error analysis is indicated below. Use the error analysis to determine which value of alpha is best to use for forecasting. Alpha = 0.1 year sales $1000s forecast absolute deviation 1 20 2 13 20.00 7 3 19 19.30 0.3 4 19 19.27 0.27 5 25 19.24 5.757 6 17 19.82 2.8187 7 15 19.54 4.53683 8 13 19.08 6.083147 9 22 18.47 3.5251677 10 20 18.83 1.17265093 11 18.94 18.94461416 5.040810979 MAD Alpha = 0.5 year sales $1000s forecast absolute deviation 1 20 2 13 20.00 7 3 19 16.50 2.5 4 19 17.75 1.25 5 25 18.38 6.625 6 17 21.69 4.6875 7 15 19.34 4.34375 8 13 17.17 4.171875 9 22 15.09 6.9140625 10 20 18.54 1.45703125 11 19.27 19.27148438 5.822070313 MAD
Exponential Smoothing was performed on the yearly sales data to forecast. Two values of the exponential smoothing constant, alpha was used. The error analysis is indicated below. Use the error analysis to determine which value of alpha is best to use for forecasting.
Alpha = 0.1
|
year |
sales $1000s |
forecast |
absolute deviation |
|
|
1 |
20 |
|
|
|
|
2 |
13 |
20.00 |
7 |
|
|
3 |
19 |
19.30 |
0.3 |
|
|
4 |
19 |
19.27 |
0.27 |
|
|
5 |
25 |
19.24 |
5.757 |
|
|
6 |
17 |
19.82 |
2.8187 |
|
|
7 |
15 |
19.54 |
4.53683 |
|
|
8 |
13 |
19.08 |
6.083147 |
|
|
9 |
22 |
18.47 |
3.5251677 |
|
|
10 |
20 |
18.83 |
1.17265093 |
|
|
11 |
|
18.94 |
18.94461416 |
|
|
5.040810979 |
MAD |
Alpha = 0.5
|
year |
sales $1000s |
forecast |
absolute deviation |
|
|
1 |
20 |
|
|
|
|
2 |
13 |
20.00 |
7 |
|
|
3 |
19 |
16.50 |
2.5 |
|
|
4 |
19 |
17.75 |
1.25 |
|
|
5 |
25 |
18.38 |
6.625 |
|
|
6 |
17 |
21.69 |
4.6875 |
|
|
7 |
15 |
19.34 |
4.34375 |
|
|
8 |
13 |
17.17 |
4.171875 |
|
|
9 |
22 |
15.09 |
6.9140625 |
|
|
10 |
20 |
18.54 |
1.45703125 |
|
|
11 |
|
19.27 |
19.27148438 |
|
|
5.822070313 |
MAD |
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