SQU E-learning System (AcadeOperations Management Fall2Exponential Smoothing gives always better results than any other similar method used for time-series forecast12 Jigلم يتم الاجابة عليهاخترأحد الخياراتالدرجة من 0 1.0a. True OLis ale Pb. False OالسؤالPrevious pageالوقت المتبقي 54:19:OQuiz navigation19:51d a d0) ENG01/12/2020O Type here to search

Forecasting in the business management is described as the process through the probable demand in…

Answered: Exponential Smoothing gives always…

Exponential Smoothing gives always better results than any other similar method used for time-series forecast اخترأحد الخبارات a. True O b. False O

Practical Management Science

6th Edition

ISBN:9781337406659

Author:WINSTON, Wayne L.

Publisher:WINSTON, Wayne L.

Chapter2: Introduction To Spreadsheet Modeling

Section: Chapter Questions

Problem 20P: Julie James is opening a lemonade stand. She believes the fixed cost per week of running the stand...

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Amazon finds that sales in July are much greater relative to other months because of the Amazon Prime days in that month. Assuming that an exponential smoothing model is used for forecasting sales, what should the company best do to make the forecast for the next month (Aug) more reflective of reality? Please pick from the provided options. F t+1 = αDt + (1-α) Ft increase value of alpha decrease value of alpha stay with the same alpha decrease the expected forecast for the current month (Ft) On hearing our forecast, our clients probe - how sure are we about the forecast? Which measure of errror (among those stated below) should we best use to respond? a. Root MSE (RMSE) b. Mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) c. Mean forecast error (Avg. error) d. Cumulative forecast error (CFE)
Given the following historical data, what is the simple three-period moving average forecast for period 6? Period 1 2 3 4 5 67.67 68.2 67.3 68.4 Value 73 66 64 73 66
d) Using exponential smoothing with α = 0.40 and the forecast for year 1 being 3,000, the forecast for year 6 = ? miles (round your response to the nearest whole number).
Forecasting with Linear Regression The company VID-CO-19 has manufactured swim suits for men, women, and children for 10 years. The company is located in Boston, Massachusetts. Swim suits have always had a higher demand during the months of April, May, June, July, August, and September. The demand has always been lower during the months of October, November, December, January, February, and March. TETT The real demand, based on sales of year 20X1 is the following (it starts with December of the previous year): Period Bimester Demand Season Average December-January February-March 1 100 90 2 200 180 3 April-May June-July August-September 900 910 4 3,000 2,100 4,000 4,900 October-November 300 350 VID-CO-19 has hired you as an Operations Management expert to help them to forecast demand for year 20X2 using the Linear Regression Method. What is the TOTAL "seasonalized" or "deseasonalized' forecasted demand for Quito-Ecuador in year 20X2? (write your answer rounded to two decimals)
41) A medium-term forecast is considered to cover what length of time? A) 2-4 weeks B) 1 month to 1 year C) 2-4 years D) 5-10 years E) 20 years 42) When is the exponential smoothing model equivalent to the naÃ¯ve forecasting model? A) ? = 0 B) ? = 0.5 C) ? = 1 D) during the first period in which it is used E) never 43) Enrollment in a particular class for the last four semesters has been 120, 126, 110, and 130. Suppose a one-semester moving average was used to forecast enrollment (this is sometimes referred to as a naÃ¯ve forecast). Thus, the forecast for the second semester would be 120, for the third semester it would be 126, and for the last semester it would be 110. What would the MSE be for this situation? A) 196.00 B) 230.67 C) 100.00 D) 42.00 E) None of the above 44) Which of the following methods tells whether the forecast tends to be too high or too low? A) MAD B) MSE C) MAPE D) decomposition E) bias 45) Assume that you have tried three different…
Over the past 6 weeks, some overseas wholesalers lowered their exports past 6 weeks shipments received by kaa were: 40, 35, 38, 34, 36, 31 tons. Kaa is seeking your help in forecasting expected shipment after 6 more weeks. Is it SMA or WMA or SLR or ESM forecast model?
Describe why such forecasting devices as moving average , weighted averages and exponential smoothing are not well suited for data series that have trends ?
Forecasting The manager of a popular tourist resort wants to use the manual trend projection forecasting technique and exponential smoothing without trend to forecast room occupancy at the resort for the next 4 years. Using a numerical example, demonstrate how these techniques can be used to do the forecast.
Given the following historical data, what is the simple three-period moving average forecast for period 6? Period Value 1 73 2 68 3 65 4 72 5 67
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Explain any one qualitative forecasting technique. How do you measure the forecast error? Give example.
Following table shows the weekly sales of smart phones at electronic retail store: Week Number of smart phones Sold Forecast using 3 period moving average Error Forecast using exponential smoothing (with α =0.4) Error 1 48 2 41 3 55 4 64 5 62 6 55 7 8 Answer the following questions based on the data given above. Show all your calculations. What is the expected sales for the 7th week based on 3 period moving average. What is the forecast for the 8th week using the same method if the actual sales for week 7 happens to be 70? What is the expected sales for the 7th week based on exponential smoothing with α = 0.3? Which of the above two forecasting method is better based on MSE? Explain why?