EXHIBIT 1 Dangerous Training? Crash Test Title: Motorcycle Training Does Not Reduce Crash Risk, Study Says Cheryl Jensen Author: Source: New York Times, April 5, 2010, http://wheels.blogs.nytimes. com/2010/04/05/motorcycle-training-does-not-reduce- crash-risk-study-says/ Consider the following statements from a recent New York Times article discussing a recent study by the Highway Loss Data Institute regarding the effectiveness of training courses in improving motorcycle safety, and consider the questions below. The article says: ANAS s What is not so certain are the safety benefits of mandatory training programs for young drivers in some states. The study compared insurance claims in four states that require riders under 21 to take courses with states that do not. The study noted a 10% increase in crashes in states that required the courses." Questions 1. Define the parameters of interest and state the null and alternative hypothesis. But that finding wasn't "statistically significant," Ms. McCartt [senior vice president for research at the Insurance Institute] said. That means the increase might or might not be real, although the institute found it worth noting. "It is important that it was going in the opposite direction of what people would expect," she said. 2. What do we know about the p-value compared to alpha? Which Type of error could we be making?

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Question

5.4.1

BEYOND THE NUMBERS 5.4
Statistical Significance
in the Media-Part III
Name:
To be graded, all assignments must be completed and submitted on the original book page.
EXHIBIT 1
Dangerous Training?
Section Number:
Crash Test
Title:
Motorcycle Training Does Not Reduce Crash Risk, Study Says
Author:
Cheryl Jensen
Source: New York Times, April 5, 2010, http://wheels.blogs.nytimes.
com/2010/04/05/motorcycle-training-does-not-reduce-
crash-risk-study-says/
Consider the following statements from a recent New York Times article
discussing a recent study by the Highway Loss Data Institute regarding
the effectiveness of training courses in improving motorcycle safety,
and consider the questions below. The article says:
ANAS
What is not so certain are the safety benefits of mandatory training programs for young drivers in
some states. The study compared insurance claims in four states that require riders under 21 to take
courses with states that do not. The study noted a 10% increase in crashes in states that required
the courses."
But that finding wasn't "statistically significant," Ms. McCartt [senior vice president for research at the
Insurance Institute] said. That means the increase might or might not be real, although the institute
found it worth noting. "It is important that it was going in the opposite direction of what people would
expect," she said.
Questions
1. Define the parameters of interest and state the null and alternative hypothesis.
2. What do we know about the p-value compared to alpha? Which Type of error could we be making?
Transcribed Image Text:BEYOND THE NUMBERS 5.4 Statistical Significance in the Media-Part III Name: To be graded, all assignments must be completed and submitted on the original book page. EXHIBIT 1 Dangerous Training? Section Number: Crash Test Title: Motorcycle Training Does Not Reduce Crash Risk, Study Says Author: Cheryl Jensen Source: New York Times, April 5, 2010, http://wheels.blogs.nytimes. com/2010/04/05/motorcycle-training-does-not-reduce- crash-risk-study-says/ Consider the following statements from a recent New York Times article discussing a recent study by the Highway Loss Data Institute regarding the effectiveness of training courses in improving motorcycle safety, and consider the questions below. The article says: ANAS What is not so certain are the safety benefits of mandatory training programs for young drivers in some states. The study compared insurance claims in four states that require riders under 21 to take courses with states that do not. The study noted a 10% increase in crashes in states that required the courses." But that finding wasn't "statistically significant," Ms. McCartt [senior vice president for research at the Insurance Institute] said. That means the increase might or might not be real, although the institute found it worth noting. "It is important that it was going in the opposite direction of what people would expect," she said. Questions 1. Define the parameters of interest and state the null and alternative hypothesis. 2. What do we know about the p-value compared to alpha? Which Type of error could we be making?
EXHIBIT 2
Vouching for Vouchers
Voucher Controversy
Title:
Author:
Source:
White House Ignores Evidence of How D.C. School Vouchers Work
Editorial Board Opinion
Washington Post, March 29, 2011, http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/
white-house-ignores-evidence-of-how-de-school-vouchers-work/2011/03/29/
AFFsnHyB_story.html
Consider the following statements from a recent Washington Post editorial discussing the
Obama strongly worded dismissal of school vouchers. The article says:
That dismissal might come as a surprise to Patrick J. Wolf, the principal investigator who helped
conduct the rigorous studies of the D.C. Opportunity Scholarship Program and who has more
than a decade of experience evaluating school choice programs.
Here's what Mr. Wolf had to say about the program in Feb. 16 testimony to the Senate Committee
on Homeland Security and Governmental Operations. "In my opinion, by demonstrating statistically
significant experimental impacts on boosting high school graduation rates and generating a
wealth of evidence suggesting that students also benefited in reading achievement, the DC OSP
has accomplished what few educational interventions can claim: It markedly improved important
education outcomes for low-income inner-city students."
Questions
1. The phrase "statistically significant" is used in Mr. Wolf's testimony. Define the parameters of
interest and state the null and alternative hypothesis..
2. What do we know about the p-value compared to alpha?
Which Type of error could we be making?
Transcribed Image Text:EXHIBIT 2 Vouching for Vouchers Voucher Controversy Title: Author: Source: White House Ignores Evidence of How D.C. School Vouchers Work Editorial Board Opinion Washington Post, March 29, 2011, http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/ white-house-ignores-evidence-of-how-de-school-vouchers-work/2011/03/29/ AFFsnHyB_story.html Consider the following statements from a recent Washington Post editorial discussing the Obama strongly worded dismissal of school vouchers. The article says: That dismissal might come as a surprise to Patrick J. Wolf, the principal investigator who helped conduct the rigorous studies of the D.C. Opportunity Scholarship Program and who has more than a decade of experience evaluating school choice programs. Here's what Mr. Wolf had to say about the program in Feb. 16 testimony to the Senate Committee on Homeland Security and Governmental Operations. "In my opinion, by demonstrating statistically significant experimental impacts on boosting high school graduation rates and generating a wealth of evidence suggesting that students also benefited in reading achievement, the DC OSP has accomplished what few educational interventions can claim: It markedly improved important education outcomes for low-income inner-city students." Questions 1. The phrase "statistically significant" is used in Mr. Wolf's testimony. Define the parameters of interest and state the null and alternative hypothesis.. 2. What do we know about the p-value compared to alpha? Which Type of error could we be making?
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