Example 2.19. Consider men who need to undergo a complicated surgery. The probability that they will survive for a year following surgery is only 50%. If they do survive for a year, then they are fully cured and their future mortality follows the pattern of general population. Suppose that for the general population, we have l60 = 89, 777, l61 89, 015, and l70 = 77, 946. Calculate probabilities that (1) a man aged 60 who is just about to have surgery will be alive at age 70, (2) a man aged 60 who had surgery at age 59 will be alive at age 70.
Example 2.19. Consider men who need to undergo a complicated surgery. The probability that they will survive for a year following surgery is only 50%. If they do survive for a year, then they are fully cured and their future mortality follows the pattern of general population. Suppose that for the general population, we have l60 = 89, 777, l61 89, 015, and l70 = 77, 946. Calculate probabilities that (1) a man aged 60 who is just about to have surgery will be alive at age 70, (2) a man aged 60 who had surgery at age 59 will be alive at age 70.
A First Course in Probability (10th Edition)
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Chapter1: Combinatorial Analysis
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![Example 2.19. Consider men who need to undergo a complicated surgery.
The probability that they will survive for a year following surgery is only
50%. If they do survive for a year, then they are fully cured and their
future mortality follows the pattern of general population.
Suppose that for the general population, we have l60 = 89, 777, l61 =
89, 015, and l70o =
77,946.
Calculate probabilities that
(1) a man aged 60 who is just about to have surgery will be alive at
age 70,
(2) a man aged 60 who had surgery at age 59 will be alive at age 70,
and
(3) a man aged 60 who had surgery at age 58 will be alive at age 70.](/v2/_next/image?url=https%3A%2F%2Fcontent.bartleby.com%2Fqna-images%2Fquestion%2F2c817dff-8a37-4d8a-93f1-08be0cdd3a23%2F41a08ac8-7ad4-4ffb-855a-4047c7085ee8%2Fz02pzd_processed.jpeg&w=3840&q=75)
Transcribed Image Text:Example 2.19. Consider men who need to undergo a complicated surgery.
The probability that they will survive for a year following surgery is only
50%. If they do survive for a year, then they are fully cured and their
future mortality follows the pattern of general population.
Suppose that for the general population, we have l60 = 89, 777, l61 =
89, 015, and l70o =
77,946.
Calculate probabilities that
(1) a man aged 60 who is just about to have surgery will be alive at
age 70,
(2) a man aged 60 who had surgery at age 59 will be alive at age 70,
and
(3) a man aged 60 who had surgery at age 58 will be alive at age 70.
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