erhaps unsurprisingly, the events A, B, and C are dependent.  That is, a congressperson having or not having one of these characteristics in fact, does affect the likelihood of having the other characteristics.  Here, we will determine exactly how that affect happens.  You do not need to do any computations for this section, the info has been either given or computed in the previous part.   Compare P( A | B ) with P( A ).  Which is bigger?  Summarize what this tells us.  Fill in the specific information into the sentence structure: “If a member of congress is [characteristic B] this [increases/decreases] the probability that they are [characteristic A].”

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2. Dependent Events

Perhaps unsurprisingly, the events A, B, and C are dependent.  That is, a congressperson having or not having one of these characteristics in fact, does affect the likelihood of having the other characteristics.  Here, we will determine exactly how that affect happens.  You do not need to do any computations for this section, the info has been either given or computed in the previous part.

 

Compare P( A | B ) with P( A ).  Which is bigger?  Summarize what this tells us.  Fill in the specific information into the sentence structure: “If a member of congress is [characteristic B] this [increases/decreases] the probability that they are [characteristic A].” 

 

Repeat this to compare P( B | A ) with P( B ).

Repeat this to compare P( B | C ) with P( B ).

Repeat this to compare P( C | B ) with P( C ).

Repeat this to compare P( C | A ) with P( C ).

Repeat this to compare P( A | C ) with P( A ).

 

3. Seattle Temperatures

Below are some links to histograms about Seattle Weather Data from the years 1949 - 2018.  Throughout this assignment, assume that all of this data is approximately normally distributed.

Seattle Daily High Temperatures

Seattle Daily Low Temperatures

 

  1. From the links above, locate the graph showing high temperatures in Seattle for your birthday month and locate the graph showing low temperatures in Seattle for your birthday month.

 

  1. On each graph, sketch an approximate normal distribution onto the histogram, and use this to guess the mean and standard deviation of the temperature distribution.  Do not do any computation for this problem, I do really want you to guess.  Use your pictures to show your reader how you guessed these values.

 

  1. Use this website to find the high and low temperatures on your most recent birthday: https://www.timeanddate.com/weather/usa/seattle/historic

 

  1. Use your estimates for the mean and standard deviation for the high temperature distribution to compute the z-score for the high temperature for your most recent birthday.
  • Is the z-score a large number or a small number?
  • Is it positive or negative?
  • What does this tell you about the high temperature on your most recent birthday compared to historical data?

 

  1. Repeat part d using your estimates for the low-temperature to compute and analyze the z-score for the low temperature on your most recent birthday.
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