Embassy Publishing Company received a six-chapter manuscript for a new college textbook. The editor of the college division is familiar with the manuscript and estimated a 0.65 probability that the textbook will be successful. If successful, a profit of $750,000 will be realized. If the company decides to publish the textbook and it is unsuccessful, a loss of $250,000 will occur. Before making the decision to accept or reject the manuscript, the editor is considering sending the manuscript out for review. A review process provides either a favorable (F) or unfavorable (U) evaluation of the manuscript. Past experience with the review process suggests that probabilities P(F) = 7 and P(U) = 0.3 apply. Let s1 = the textbook is successful, and s2 = the textbook is unsuccessful. The editor’s initial probabilities of s1 and s2 will be revised based on whether the review is favorable or unfavorable. The revised probabilities are as follows: P(s1 | F) = 0.65 P(s1 | U) = 0.605 P(s2 | F) = 0.35 P(s2 | U) = 0.395 a. Construct a decision tree assuming that the company will first make the decision of whether to send the manuscript out for review and then make the decision to accept or reject the manuscript. b Analyze the decision tree to determine the optimal decision strategy for the publishing company. c If the manuscript review costs $5000, what is your recommendation? d What is the expected value of perfect information? What does this EVPI suggest for the company?

Practical Management Science

6th Edition

ISBN:9781337406659

Author:WINSTON, Wayne L.

Publisher:WINSTON, Wayne L.

Chapter2: Introduction To Spreadsheet Modeling

Section: Chapter Questions

Problem 20P: Julie James is opening a lemonade stand. She believes the fixed cost per week of running the stand...

See similar textbooks

Related questions

Question

Embassy Publishing Company received a six-chapter manuscript for a new college textbook. The editor of the college division is familiar with the manuscript and estimated a 0.65 probability that the textbook will be successful. If successful, a profit of $750,000 will be realized. If the company decides to publish the textbook and it is unsuccessful, a loss of $250,000 will occur. Before making the decision to accept or reject the manuscript, the editor is considering sending the manuscript out for review. A review process provides either a favorable (F) or unfavorable (U) evaluation of the manuscript. Past experience with the review process suggests that probabilities P(F) = 7 and P(U) = 0.3 apply. Let s1 = the textbook is successful, and s2 = the textbook is unsuccessful. The editor’s initial probabilities of s1 and s2 will be revised based on whether the review is favorable or unfavorable. The revised probabilities are as follows:

P(s1 | F) = 0.65 P(s1 | U) = 0.605

P(s2 | F) = 0.35 P(s2 | U) = 0.395

a. Construct a decision tree assuming that the company will first make the decision of whether to send the manuscript out for review and then make the decision to accept or reject the manuscript.

b Analyze the decision tree to determine the optimal decision strategy for the publishing company.

c If the manuscript review costs $5000, what is your recommendation?

d What is the expected value of perfect information? What does this EVPI suggest for the company?

Expert Solution

Trending now

This is a popular solution!

Step by step

Solved in 4 steps with 2 images

SEE SOLUTION Check out a sample Q&A here

Knowledge Booster

Learn more about

Need a deep-dive on the concept behind this application? Look no further. Learn more about this topic, operations-management and related others by exploring similar questions and additional content below.

Similar questions