Each month, Joe’s Auto Parts uses exponential smoothing (with α=0.25) to predict the number of cans of brake fluid that will be sold during the next month. In June, Joe forecast that he would sell 37 cans of brake fluid during July. Joe actually sold 43 cans in July. What is Joe’s forecast for brake fluid sales in August and September? Suppose that Joe sells 32 cans of brake fluid in August. What is the revised forecast for September?
Continuous Probability Distributions
Probability distributions are of two types, which are continuous probability distributions and discrete probability distributions. A continuous probability distribution contains an infinite number of values. For example, if time is infinite: you could count from 0 to a trillion seconds, billion seconds, so on indefinitely. A discrete probability distribution consists of only a countable set of possible values.
Normal Distribution
Suppose we had to design a bathroom weighing scale, how would we decide what should be the range of the weighing machine? Would we take the highest recorded human weight in history and use that as the upper limit for our weighing scale? This may not be a great idea as the sensitivity of the scale would get reduced if the range is too large. At the same time, if we keep the upper limit too low, it may not be usable for a large percentage of the population!
.) Each month, Joe’s Auto Parts uses exponential smoothing (with α=0.25) to predict the number of cans of brake fluid that will be sold during the next month. In June, Joe forecast that he would sell 37 cans of brake fluid during July. Joe actually sold 43 cans in July.
- What is Joe’s forecast for brake fluid sales in August and September?
- Suppose that Joe sells 32 cans of brake fluid in August. What is the revised forecast for September?
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