Demand Probability 50 0.25 150 0.50 200 0.25

Practical Management Science
6th Edition
ISBN:9781337406659
Author:WINSTON, Wayne L.
Publisher:WINSTON, Wayne L.
Chapter2: Introduction To Spreadsheet Modeling
Section: Chapter Questions
Problem 20P: Julie James is opening a lemonade stand. She believes the fixed cost per week of running the stand...
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Dorothy’s pastries are freshly baked and sold at several spe-
cialty shops throughout Perth. When they are a day old, they
must be sold at reduced prices. Daily demand is distributed
as follows:Each pastry sells for $1.00 and costs $0.60 to make. Each one
not sold at the end of the day can be sold the next day for
$0.30 as day-old merchandise. How many pastries should be
baked each day?

Demand
Probability
50
0.25
150
0.50
200
0.25
Transcribed Image Text:Demand Probability 50 0.25 150 0.50 200 0.25
Expert Solution
Step 1

We will make a result framework dependent on the blend of number of pastries baked each day and expected request. 

Result = Total benefit = Total income - Total expense 

Selling cost for baked good = $1.00 per unit 

Cost for baked good = $0.60 per unit 

Unsold income = $0.30 per unit

  Expected Demand
Pastries Baked 50 150 200
50 50*(1-0.6) 50*(1-0.6) 50*(1-0.6)
150 50*(1-0.6)+(150-50)*(0.3-0.6) 150*(1-0.6) 150*(1-0.6)
200 50*(1-0.6)+(200-50)*(0.3-0.6) 150*(1-0.6)+(200-150)*(0.3-0.6) 200*(1-0.6)
Probability 0.25 0.5 0.25

Final payoff matrix is below:

  Expected Demand
Pastries Baked (Alternative) 50 150 200
50 20 20 20
150 -10 60 60
200 -25 45 80
Probability 0.25 0.5 0.25

 

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