DEMAND FOR FERTILIZER YEAR   (1,000S OF BAGS) 1   4 2   6 3   4 4   5 5   10 6   8 7   7 8   9 9   12 10   14 11   15 Data collected on the yearly demand for 50-pound bags of fertilizer at Wallace Garden Supply are shown in the following table:  Develop a 3-year moving average to forecast demand. Forecast demand again with a weighted moving average in which sales in the most recent year are given a weight of 2 and sales in the other 2 years are each given a weight of 1. Develop a trend line for the demand for fertilizer using any computer software.

Practical Management Science
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Author:WINSTON, Wayne L.
Publisher:WINSTON, Wayne L.
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DEMAND FOR FERTILIZER

YEAR

 

(1,000S OF BAGS)

1

 

4

2

 

6

3

 

4

4

 

5

5

 

10

6

 

8

7

 

7

8

 

9

9

 

12

10

 

14

11

 

15

Data collected on the yearly demand for 50-pound bags of fertilizer at Wallace Garden Supply are shown in the following table: 

  1. Develop a 3-year moving average to forecast demand.
  2. Forecast demand again with a weighted moving average in which sales in the most recent year are given a weight of 2 and sales in the other 2 years are each given a weight of 1.
  3. Develop a trend line for the demand for fertilizer using any computer software.
  4. For these three forecasts, 3-year moving average, a weighted moving average, and a trend line, which one would you use? Explain your answer.
  5. Use exponential smoothing with a smoothing constant of 0.3 to forecast the demand for fertilizer given. Assume that last period’s forecast for year 1 is 5,000 bags to begin the procedure.  Would you prefer to use the exponential smoothing model or the weighted average model developed?  Explain your answer.

 

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