Data collected on the yearly demand for 50-pound bags of fertilizer at Wallace Garden Supply are shown in the following table. Develop a 3-year mov- ing average to forecast sales. Then estimate demand again with a weighted moving average in which sales in the most recent year are given a weight of 2 and sales in the other 2 years are each given a weight of 1. Which method do you think is better? DEMAND FOR FERTILIZER

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Author:Amos Gilat
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1
2
3
4
Year D 3 month mov avg
6
7
:5-17 Data collected on the yearly demand for 50-pound
bags of fertilizer at Wallace Garden Supply are
shown in the following table. Develop a 3-year mov-
ing average to forecast sales. Then estimate demand
again with a weighted moving average in which
sales in the most recent year are given a weight of 2
and sales in the other 2 years are each given a weight
of 1. Which method do you think is better?
4
5 10
10
6
11
4
5
co
8
8 9
7
9 12
14
YEAR
1
2
3
4
5
15
6
7
8
9
10
11
DEMAND FOR FERTILIZER
(1,000s OF BAGS)
4
6
4
5
10
8
7
9
12
14
15
3 month weighted moving avg
TOTAL ABS DEV
ABS Dev (3 yr)
ABS DEV (moving)
Transcribed Image Text:1 2 3 4 Year D 3 month mov avg 6 7 :5-17 Data collected on the yearly demand for 50-pound bags of fertilizer at Wallace Garden Supply are shown in the following table. Develop a 3-year mov- ing average to forecast sales. Then estimate demand again with a weighted moving average in which sales in the most recent year are given a weight of 2 and sales in the other 2 years are each given a weight of 1. Which method do you think is better? 4 5 10 10 6 11 4 5 co 8 8 9 7 9 12 14 YEAR 1 2 3 4 5 15 6 7 8 9 10 11 DEMAND FOR FERTILIZER (1,000s OF BAGS) 4 6 4 5 10 8 7 9 12 14 15 3 month weighted moving avg TOTAL ABS DEV ABS Dev (3 yr) ABS DEV (moving)
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