5.4 BEYOND THE NUMBERS 5.4Statistical Significancein the Media-Part IIIName:To be graded, all assignments must be completed and submitted on the original book page.EXHIBIT 1Dangerous Training?Section Number:Crash TestTitle:Motorcycle Training Does Not Reduce Crash Risk, Study SaysAuthor:Cheryl JensenSource: New York Times, April 5, 2010, http://wheels.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/04/05/motorcycle-training-does-not-reduce-crash-risk-study-says/Consider the following statements from a recent New York Times articlediscussing a recent study by the Highway Loss Data Institute regardingthe effectiveness of training courses in improving motorcycle safety,and consider the questions below. The article says:ANASWhat is not so certain are the safety benefits of mandatory training programs for young drivers insome states. The study compared insurance claims in four states that require riders under 21 to takecourses with states that do not. The study noted a 10% increase in crashes in states that requiredthe courses."But that finding wasn't "statistically significant," Ms. McCartt [senior vice president for research at theInsurance Institute] said. That means the increase might or might not be real, although the institutefound it worth noting. "It is important that it was going in the opposite direction of what people wouldexpect," she said.Questions1. Define the parameters of interest and state the null and alternative hypothesis.2. What do we know about the p-value compared to alpha? Which Type of error could we be making? EXHIBIT 2Vouching for VouchersVoucher ControversyTitle:Author:Source:White House Ignores Evidence of How D.C. School Vouchers WorkEditorial Board OpinionWashington Post, March 29, 2011, http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/white-house-ignores-evidence-of-how-de-school-vouchers-work/2011/03/29/AFFsnHyB_story.htmlConsider the following statements from a recent Washington Post editorial discussing theObama strongly worded dismissal of school vouchers. The article says:That dismissal might come as a surprise to Patrick J. Wolf, the principal investigator who helpedconduct the rigorous studies of the D.C. Opportunity Scholarship Program and who has morethan a decade of experience evaluating school choice programs.Here's what Mr. Wolf had to say about the program in Feb. 16 testimony to the Senate Committeeon Homeland Security and Governmental Operations. "In my opinion, by demonstrating statisticallysignificant experimental impacts on boosting high school graduation rates and generating awealth of evidence suggesting that students also benefited in reading achievement, the DC OSPhas accomplished what few educational interventions can claim: It markedly improved importanteducation outcomes for low-income inner-city students."Questions1. The phrase "statistically significant" is used in Mr. Wolf's testimony. Define the parameters ofinterest and state the null and alternative hypothesis..2. What do we know about the p-value compared to alpha?Which Type of error could we be making?

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Dangerous Training? Crash Test Title: Motorcycle Training Does Not Reduce Crash Risk, Study Says Author: Cheryl Jensen Source: New York Times, April 5, 2010, http://wheels.blogs.nytimes. com/2010/04/05/motorcycle-training-does-not-reduce- crash-risk-study-says/ Consider the following statements from a recent New York Times article discussing a recent study by the Highway Loss Data Institute regarding the effectiveness of training courses in improving motorcycle safety, and consider the questions below. The article says: What is not so certain are the safety benefits of mandatory training programs for young drivers in some states. The study compared insurance claims in four states that require riders under 21 to take courses with states that do not. The study noted a 10% increase in crashes in states that required