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- The Business School at State University currently has three parking lots, each containing 155 spaces. Two hundred faculty members have been assigned to each lot. On a peak day, an average of 70% of all lot 1 parking sticker holders show up, an average of 72% of all lot 2 parking sticker holders show up, and an average of 74% of all lot 3 parking sticker holders show up. a. Given the current situation, estimate the probability that on a peak day, at least one faculty member with a sticker will be unable to find a spot. Assume that the number who show up at each lot is independent of the number who show up at the other two lots. Compare two situations: (1) each person can park only in the lot assigned to him or her, and (2) each person can park in any of the lots (pooling). (Hint: Use the RISKBINOMIAL function.) If needed, round your answer to a whole percentage and if your answer is zero, enter "0". No pooling: Pooling: 51.4 % 83.8 % b. Now suppose the numbers of people who show up at…Bob, the proprietor of Midway Lumber, bases his projections for the annual revenues of the company on the performance of the housing market. He rates the performance of the market as very strong, strong, normal, weak, or very weak. For the next year, Bob estimates that the probabilities for these outcomes are 0.15, 0.25, 0.39, 0.09, and 0.12, respectively. He also thinks that the revenues corresponding to these outcomes are $23, $18.6, $16.9, $14, and $6 million, respectively. What is Bob's expected revenue for next year?Lumina Retail has just bought a chain of appliance stores. Lumina received an offer from Comfort Cubbies to purchase the Wyndham branch store for $120,000. Lumina has determined probability estimates of the store's future profitability, based on historical projections as: P($80,000) = .2, P($100,000) = .3, P($120,000) = .1, and P($140,000) = .4. Your best friend's family owns Lumina and they asked you for advice. What do you recommend? Choose the BEST option. Group of answer choices Yes, sell the branch. Your highest payoff is $140,000. Yes, sell the branch. Your highest payoff is $120,000. No, do not sell the branch. Your highest payoff is $140,000. You need more information to help them decide. No, do not sell the branch. Your highest payoff is $114,000.st payoff is $140,000.
- Credit scorecards are used by financial institutions to help decide to whom loans shouldbe granted. An analysis of the records of one bank produced the following probabilities.ScoreLoan Performance Under 400 400 or MoreFully repaid .19 .64Defaulted .13 .04a) What proportion of loans are fully repaid?b) What proportion of loans given to scorers of less than 400 fully repay?c) What proportion of loans given to scorers of 400 or more fully repay?d) Are score and whether the loan is fully repaid independent? Explain.Tyson Corp. stock has returns of 3%, 18%, -24%, and 28% for the past four years. Based on this information, what is the 99% probability range for any one given year? Select one: Oa 24.5 to 34.3% O b.-61.7 to 74.2% OC.-8.4 to 11.7% Od.-16.4 to 28.9% e. 39.0 to 51.5%An insurance company calculates car insurance premiums based on the age of the policyholder according to three age groups: Group A consists of drivers younger than 22 years old; Group B consistsof drivers 22—33 years old, and Group C consists of drivers older than 33 years.Its portfolio consists of 10% Group A policyholders, 38% Group B policyholdersand 52% Group C policyholders.The probability of a claim in any 12 month period for a policy belonging to GroupA, B or C is 13%, 3% and 2%, respectively.(i) Calculate the probability that a randomly chosen policy holder from thisportfolio will make a claim during a 12 month period. One of the company’s policyholders has just made a claim(ii) Calculate the probability that the policy holder is younger than 22 years.
- There are three areas of funding being reviewed: school, roads, and administrative. Each category can experience an increase, a decrease, or no change to the amount of funding it receives. Using a list, what is the probability of at least two areas with no change to funding, assuming all options have equal probability?At the beginning of each day, a patient in the hospital is classifed into one of the three conditions: good, fair or critical. At the beginning of the next day, the patient will either still be in the hospital and be in good, fair or critical condition or will be discharged in one of three conditions: improved, unimproved, or dead. The transistion probabilities for this situation are Good Fair Critical Good 0.65 0.20 0.05 Fair 0.50 0.30 0.12 Critical 0.51 0.25 0.20 Improved Unimproved Dead Good 0.06 0.03 0.01 Fair 0.03 0.02 0.03 Critical 0.01 0.01 0.02 For example a patient who begins the day in fair condition has a 12% chance of being in critical condition the next day and a 3%…An oil company purchased an option on land in Alaska. Preliminary geologic studies assigned the following prior probabilities.
- A gas station has three grades of fuel, regular, premium and diesel. Due to problems with the supply chain, the probabilities that the station will run out of any three fuel types in a week are 0.10, 0.16 and 0.24, respectively. These probabilities are statistically independent. Also, if there is a shortage of diesel, the probability of a shortage of premium becomes 0.25. 1. How likely is the station to run out of all three fuels in a given week? 2. What is the probability that if regular runs out, both premium and diesel will also run out? 3. What is the probability that the station will run out of at least one of either premium and diesel? 4. What is the probability that the station will run out of at least 2 of the fuels in a week?The management of the large department store in Example B.1 must determine whether more training is neededfor the customer service clerk. The clerk at the customer service desk can serve an average of three customersper hour. What is the probability that a customer will require 10 minutes or less of service?An insurance company calculates car insurance company calculates car insurance premiums based on the age of the policyholder according to three age groups: Group A consists of drivers younger than 22 years old; Group B consists of drivers 22—33 years old, and Group C consists of drivers older than 33 years.Its portfolio consists of 10% Group A policyholders, 38% Group B policyholders and 52% Group C policyholders. The probability of a claim in any 12 month period for a policy belonging to Group A, B or C is 13%, 3% and 2%, respectively. (i) Calculate the probability that a randomly chosen policy holder from this portfolio will make a claim during a 12 month period. One of the company’s policyholders has just made a claim(ii) Calculate the probability that the policy holder is younger than 22 years.
