Consider the same informational cascade game as in Lecture 11 (prior belief = 0.5, payoff of correct choice = 1, payoff of wrong choice = 0). Let the signal accuracy be 0.85 for every player: P(SLIL is correct) = P(sR|R is correct) = 0.85. If the first consumer chooses L, what is his posterior belief P(L is correct) at the time of his choice? Please write your answer in digits, not fraction.

A First Course in Probability (10th Edition)
10th Edition
ISBN:9780134753119
Author:Sheldon Ross
Publisher:Sheldon Ross
Chapter1: Combinatorial Analysis
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Problem 1.1P: a. How many different 7-place license plates are possible if the first 2 places are for letters and...
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Consider the same informational cascade game as in Lecture 11 (prior belief = 0.5, payoff of correct choice = 1, payoff of
wrong choice = 0). Let the signal accuracy be 0.85 for every player: P(SLIL is correct) = P(sR|R is correct) = 0.85.
If the first consumer chooses L, what is his posterior belief P(L is correct) at the time of his choice?
Please write your answer in digits, not fraction.
Transcribed Image Text:Consider the same informational cascade game as in Lecture 11 (prior belief = 0.5, payoff of correct choice = 1, payoff of wrong choice = 0). Let the signal accuracy be 0.85 for every player: P(SLIL is correct) = P(sR|R is correct) = 0.85. If the first consumer chooses L, what is his posterior belief P(L is correct) at the time of his choice? Please write your answer in digits, not fraction.
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