Consider the decision tree'below. You are at the starting decision node DO (shown in the orange color). Assumeall paths and decisions occur within a 1-year time horizon, so that no discounting is necessary. There are dollarinvestments, as shown, required at decision nodes D1 and D2. Which of the letters (shown in the red color)represents the optimal path maximizing the expected outcome value?Value, $300.9D3Investment0.4100S-500.10.650DIS-80500900.1D1500$-8090Value $0.3150$-250.3-300.4750.5200D2 ES-30-0.5-100$-3550O a. AO b. BO c. CO d. DO e. EO f. F

Answered: Consider the decision tree'below. You…

Practical Management Science

6th Edition

ISBN:9781337406659

Author:WINSTON, Wayne L.

Publisher:WINSTON, Wayne L.

Chapter2: Introduction To Spreadsheet Modeling

Section: Chapter Questions

Problem 20P: Julie James is opening a lemonade stand. She believes the fixed cost per week of running the stand...

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Assume that the Wisconsin Cheese Factory currently operates a large facility in Madison, WI. The owner, however, is concerned about concentration of risk and has decided to open up two new facilities to lessen that concentration, one in St. Cloud, MN, and the other in Iowa City, IA. Total production, while slightly less profitable overall because of additional operational costs, remains the same, with 1/3 at each location. This action is an example of _______. profit maximization loss reduction loss prevention risk avoidance
Your town is considering updating one of the local parks. They created a linear program that had the following constraints: 1. Spend no more than $100,000 2. Spend no more than $50,000 on new playground equipment 3. Put in at least three basketball courts After running the linear program, the town saw that the program was infeasible. The town has decided to make constraints 1 & 2 goals, instead of hard constraints. How many decision variables would need to be added to the town's linear program, in order to turn it into a goal program with two soft constraints that allow deviation in both directions?
Do the following problems using either TreePlan A student is deciding which scholarships (out of two) to accept. The first scholarship is worth $10,000 but carries the condition that recipients cannot accept another other forms of income (such as other scholarships). The second scholarship is awarded in a competition, where this student has a 50% chance of earning $7,000, a 40% chance of earning $10,000, and a 10% chance of earning $15,000. The student must inform the administrator of the first scholarship whether she will be accepting their offer today. A. Develop a decision tree to determine which scholarship this student should accept (using our normal decision criteria). B. Under what circumstance might the student accept the other scholarship?
The following payoff table shows profit for a decision analysis problem with two decision alternatives and three states of nature. Decision Alternative d₁ d₂ = EV(d₁) EV(d₂) The optimal decision is ? States of Nature $1 $2 230 80 $3 80 5 Suppose that the decision maker obtained the probabilities P(S₁) = 0.65, P(S₂) = 0.15, and P(S3) = 0.20. Use the expected value approach to determine the optimal decision. 80 55
9. The East Chester Tribune must decide whether to publish a Sunday edition. The publisher thinks the probability is 0.6 that a Sunday edition would be a success and 0.4 that it would be a failure. If it is a success, she will gain $100,000. If it is a failure, she will lose $80,000. a. Construct a decision tree corresponding to the problem, and use backward induction to solve the problem. (Assume that the publisher is risk-neutral.) b. List all forks in the decision tree you constructed; then indicate whether each is a decision fork or a chance fork and state why.
Consider a buying firm and a supplier negotiating terms for a contract. Suppose the Marginal Benefit to the buying firm of additional contract provisions in a contract (x) to the firm is: MB = 20,000 – 400x. Suppose the Marginal Cost to the buying firm of additional contract provision to the firm is: MC = 100x. What is the optimal number of contract provisions? Reconsider the previous question. If the maximum value (or price) of the contract that the buying firm is willing to pay for is $3,000, what would you expect the firm to do? a) Use the spot market b) Vertically integrate c) Continue to contract d) engage in holdup
A small strip-mining coal company is trying to decide whether it should purchase or lease a new clamshell. If purchased, the “shell” will cost $152,500 and is expected to have a $50,000 salvage value after 6 years. Alternatively, the company can lease a clamshell for only $16,000 per year, but the lease payment will have to be made at the beginning of each year. If the clamshell is purchased, it will be leased to other strip-mining companies whenever possible, an activity that is expected to yield revenues of $9,000 per year. If the company’s MARR is 13% per year, should the clamshell be purchased or leased on the basis of a future worth analysis? Assume the annual M&O cost is the same for both options. The future worth when purchased is $ The future worth when leased is $

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