Consider an investment to an asset in a region with opportunity of a small war. The earnings per share (EPS) also depend of oil prices. In case of High oil prices small war will happen with probability 5% and earnings will be $0.5 per share. If small war does not occur under High oil prices earnings per share will be $1.4 In case of Low oil prices small war will happen with probability 40% and earnings will be $0.5 per share. If small war does not occur under High oil prices earnings per share will be $1.3 Is is evaluated from historical data that oil prices will be High with probability 20% Find Total Variance of EPS hint: find marginal probabilities of each EPS value: 0.5, 1.3 and 1.4; then use these probabilities and values to find usual unconditional variance

Essentials Of Investments
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ISBN:9781260013924
Author:Bodie, Zvi, Kane, Alex, MARCUS, Alan J.
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Chapter1: Investments: Background And Issues
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Consider an investment to an asset in a region with opportunity of a small war.

The earnings per share (EPS) also depend of oil prices.

In case of High oil prices small war will happen with probability 5% and earnings will be $0.5 per share. If small war does not occur under High oil prices earnings per share will be $1.4

In case of Low oil prices small war will happen with probability 40% and earnings will be $0.5 per share. If small war does not occur under High oil prices earnings per share will be $1.3

Is is evaluated from historical data that oil prices will be High with probability 20%

Find Total Variance of EPS

hint: find marginal probabilities of each EPS value: 0.5, 1.3 and 1.4; then use these probabilities and values to find usual unconditional variance

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