Consider a population (or more precisely a population density) of size N in a small city in the former Soviet Union, which is completely susceptible to a rare disease known as Suriv-Sugob-A, named after a Russian admiral who was the first to contract the disease after an encounter with indigenous people in the Siberian rain forest. The disease is transmitted by droplets through the air or direct contact. It has a transmission coefficient of ?, which is the probability of successful transmission once a susceptible individual is exposed. The corresponding recovery period is 1/? days. Suppose you are in charge of managing an immunization campaign to protect against an outbreak of Suriv[1]Sugob-A. Assume the following disease characteristics: ? = 1 ×10-6
Consider a population (or more precisely a population density) of size N in a small city in the former
Soviet Union, which is completely susceptible to a rare disease known as Suriv-Sugob-A, named after a
Russian admiral who was the first to contract the disease after an encounter with indigenous people in the
Siberian rain forest. The disease is transmitted by droplets through the air or direct contact. It has a
transmission coefficient of ?, which is the probability of successful transmission once a susceptible
individual is exposed. The corresponding recovery period is 1/? days.
Suppose you are in charge of managing an immunization campaign to protect against an outbreak of Suriv[1]Sugob-A. Assume the following disease characteristics:
? = 1 ×10-6
, ? = .25, and a population of N = 750,000.
Please Answer (A)
(a) determine the length of the outbreak if your
entire population is susceptible.
![**Deriving \( R_0 \)**
The change in infected individuals (\( \Delta I \)) is given by the formula:
\[ \Delta I = \gamma I_t \left( \frac{\alpha S_t}{\gamma} - 1 \right) \]
The basic reproduction number (\( R_0 \)) is calculated as:
\[ R_0 = \frac{\alpha}{\gamma} S_0 \]
### Implications of \( R_0 \):
- If \( R_0 > 1 \): There is a possible **Epidemic**.
- If \( R_0 = 1 \): The situation is **Endemic**.
- If \( R_0 < 1 \): The cases are **isolated**.
The arrow pointing in the visual suggests the flow or change indicated by the values of \( R_0 \).](/v2/_next/image?url=https%3A%2F%2Fcontent.bartleby.com%2Fqna-images%2Fquestion%2Fc353cc0f-0c4d-4d5b-a3e6-e746dbb90f94%2F41c410dd-70e4-48c5-afef-e54a9bdcc82b%2Fu40704_processed.png&w=3840&q=75)
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