Blue sheep Logistic company delivering parcels. They realized the advantages of forecasting very early in their business. They also realized that in order to perform effective forecast, they need to keep track of their current and past sales numbers. Currently they are in the process of forecasting their sales numbers for each month of the coming year. In order to do this, they have pulled up their sales numbers for the last 12 months. These numbers are as follows: Months Sales 1 1851 2 2944 3 2629 4 2262 5 1588 6 644 7 780 8 1145 9 1419 10 657 11 2404 12 2497 Use the Least- squares methods to find forecast for the next 4 months .Also find out the “standard error of the estimate”. Solve manually generate data from excel only.
Continuous Probability Distributions
Probability distributions are of two types, which are continuous probability distributions and discrete probability distributions. A continuous probability distribution contains an infinite number of values. For example, if time is infinite: you could count from 0 to a trillion seconds, billion seconds, so on indefinitely. A discrete probability distribution consists of only a countable set of possible values.
Normal Distribution
Suppose we had to design a bathroom weighing scale, how would we decide what should be the range of the weighing machine? Would we take the highest recorded human weight in history and use that as the upper limit for our weighing scale? This may not be a great idea as the sensitivity of the scale would get reduced if the range is too large. At the same time, if we keep the upper limit too low, it may not be usable for a large percentage of the population!
Q-3: Blue sheep Logistic company delivering parcels. They realized the advantages of forecasting very early in their business. They also realized that in order to perform effective forecast, they need to keep track of their current and past sales numbers.
Currently they are in the process of forecasting their sales numbers for each month of the coming year. In order to do this, they have pulled up their sales numbers for the last 12 months. These numbers are as follows:
| Months | Sales |
| 1 | 1851 |
| 2 | 2944 |
| 3 | 2629 |
| 4 | 2262 |
| 5 | 1588 |
| 6 | 644 |
| 7 | 780 |
| 8 | 1145 |
| 9 | 1419 |
| 10 | 657 |
| 11 | 2404 |
| 12 | 2497 |
Use the Least- squares methods to find forecast for the next 4 months .Also find out the “standard error of the estimate”. Solve manually generate data from excel only.
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