Blue Cab operates 15% of the taxis in a certain city, andGreen Cab operates the other 85%. After a nighttime hitand-run accident involving a taxi, an eyewitness said thevehicle was blue. Suppose, though, that under nightvision conditions, only 80% of individuals can correctlydistinguish between a blue and a green vehicle. What isthe (posterior) probability that the taxi at fault was blue?In answering, be sure to indicate which probability rulesyou are using. [Hint: A tree diagram might help. Note:This is based on an actual incident.]

A First Course in Probability (10th Edition)
10th Edition
ISBN:9780134753119
Author:Sheldon Ross
Publisher:Sheldon Ross
Chapter1: Combinatorial Analysis
Section: Chapter Questions
Problem 1.1P: a. How many different 7-place license plates are possible if the first 2 places are for letters and...
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Blue Cab operates 15% of the taxis in a certain city, and
Green Cab operates the other 85%. After a nighttime hitand-
run accident involving a taxi, an eyewitness said the
vehicle was blue. Suppose, though, that under night
vision conditions, only 80% of individuals can correctly
distinguish between a blue and a green vehicle. What is
the (posterior) probability that the taxi at fault was blue?
In answering, be sure to indicate which probability rules
you are using. [Hint: A tree diagram might help. Note:
This is based on an actual incident.]

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