As you are in gym class, you find out that your classmates are playing a game. A player will show you two coins, one of which is fair (each outcome with equal probability), the other of which is "loaded", giving side A with probability of 0.75 and side B with probability of 0.25 The player will then select one of these coins at random and flip a number of times, at which point you have to guess based on the results what coin it is.

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Author:Amos Gilat
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Answer the following questions accordingly. Thanks in advance!

As you are in gym class, you find out that your classmates are playing a game. A player will
show you two coins, one of which is fair (each outcome with equal probability), the other of
which is "loaded", giving side A with probability of 0.75 and side B with probability of 0.25.
The player will then select one of these coins at random and flip a number of times, at which
point you have to guess based on the results what coin it is.
You decide on the following strategy: Out of N flips, if over half of them are A, you'll say it's
the loaded coin, otherwise you'll say it's the fair coin.
a) Following the strategy, what's the probability you win in a game of 10 flips? 20 flips?
b) If you want to maximize your probability of winning, what threshold should you set for
your strategy in a game of 10 flips? 20 flips? Try to be thorough to your methods (be
precise)!
Transcribed Image Text:As you are in gym class, you find out that your classmates are playing a game. A player will show you two coins, one of which is fair (each outcome with equal probability), the other of which is "loaded", giving side A with probability of 0.75 and side B with probability of 0.25. The player will then select one of these coins at random and flip a number of times, at which point you have to guess based on the results what coin it is. You decide on the following strategy: Out of N flips, if over half of them are A, you'll say it's the loaded coin, otherwise you'll say it's the fair coin. a) Following the strategy, what's the probability you win in a game of 10 flips? 20 flips? b) If you want to maximize your probability of winning, what threshold should you set for your strategy in a game of 10 flips? 20 flips? Try to be thorough to your methods (be precise)!
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