As Bayes' Theorem illustrates, when you're testing for a rare event (e.g. a rare disease), it's unlikely that a positive result will translate into a high likelihood that the event happened. This is true even for tests which seem very accurate. This counter- intuitive result only works for rare events; why? Because it causes specificity to fall. Because it results in a lot of false positives. Because it causes sensitivity to fall. Because it results in a lot of false negatives.

As Bayes' Theorem illustrates, when you're testing for a rare event (e.g. a rare disease), it's unlikely that a positive result will translate into a high likelihood that the event happened. This is true even for tests which seem very accurate. This counter- intuitive result only works for rare events; why? Because it causes specificity to fall. Because it results in a lot of false positives. Because it causes sensitivity to fall. Because it results in a lot of false negatives.

College Algebra

10th Edition

ISBN:9781337282291

Author:Ron Larson

Publisher:Ron Larson

Chapter8: Sequences, Series,and Probability

Section8.7: Probability

Problem 11ECP: A manufacturer has determined that a machine averages one faulty unit for every 500 it produces....

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