Arrowroot Ltd is considering whether to invest in a machine that produces soft drink bottles now or in one year’s time. The machine costs $2 million and the bottles will be ready for sale immediately after the machine is purchased. The machine is expected to produce 1 million bottles per year forever. Currently, the bottle can be sold for $0.4 each but next year the price will change. If there is a high demand, the price for one bottle will be $0.6. If the demand is normal, the price will be $0.3 per bottle. If the demand is low, the price will be $0.1 per bottle. The probability of high demand is 0.3, the probability of normal demand is 0.2 and the probability of low demand is 0.5. The price will remain at this new level forever. Assume no taxes and the company’s cost of capital is 10 percent per annum. Should the company invest in the machine now or delay it by one year? Show all calculations. What is the value of the option to delay?
Arrowroot Ltd is considering whether to invest in a machine that produces soft drink bottles now or in one year’s time. The machine costs $2 million and the bottles will be ready for sale immediately after the machine is purchased. The machine is expected to produce 1 million bottles per year forever. Currently, the bottle can be sold for $0.4 each but next year the price will change. If there is a high demand, the price for one bottle will be $0.6. If the demand is normal, the price will be $0.3 per bottle. If the demand is low, the price will be $0.1 per bottle. The probability of high demand is 0.3, the probability of normal demand is 0.2 and the probability of low demand is 0.5. The price will remain at this new level forever. Assume no taxes and the company’s cost of capital is 10 percent per annum.
Should the company invest in the machine now or delay it by one year? Show all calculations.
What is the value of the option to delay?
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