An IT company employs two sales engineers. Engineer 1 does the work of estimating cost for 70% of jobs bid by the company. Engineer 2 does the work for 30% of jobs bid by the company. It is known that the error rate for engineer 1 is such that 0.02 is the probability of an error when he does the work, whereas the probability of an error in the work of engineer 2 is 0.04. Suppose a bid arrives and a serious error occurs in estimating cost. Which engineer would you guess did the work? Explain and show all work.

A First Course in Probability (10th Edition)
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Chapter1: Combinatorial Analysis
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An IT company employs two sales engineers. Engineer 1 does the work of estimating cost for
70% of jobs bid by the company. Engineer 2 does the work for 30% of jobs bid by the company.
It is known that the error rate for engineer 1 is such that 0.02 is the probability of an error when
he does the work, whereas the probability of an error in the work of engineer 2 is 0.04. Suppose
a bid arrives and a serious error occurs in estimating cost. Which engineer would you guess did
the work? Explain and show all work.

 

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