An insurance company assumes that the number of claims in a year has a Poisson distribution of mean λ and that this number is independent from year to year. Suppose that a Assume that an insured chosen randomly from a portfolio has the following number of claims: 4, 0, 1, 2, 3, 0, 0, 1, 1, 0. a) Find a conjugate a priori density for λ knowing that the company estimates as more frequently 2 claims a year and that no more than 5 claims are acceptable in a year with a probability 0.97 b) Determine a posteriori credibility interval at 99%. c) Obtain the marginal distribution of the number of claims and predict the number of claims in the following year using a 95% confidence interval.

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An insurance company assumes that the number of claims in a year has a Poisson
distribution of mean A and that this number is independent from year to year.
Suppose that a
Assume that an insured chosen randomly from a portfolio has the following number
of claims: 4, 0, 1, 2, 3, 0, 0, 1, 1, 0.
a) Find a conjugate a priori density for A knowing that the company estimates as
more frequently 2 claims a year and that no more than 5 claims are
acceptable in a year with a probability 0.97
b) Determine a posteriori credibility interval at 99%.
c) Obtain the marginal distribution of the number of claims and predict the
number of claims in the following year using a 95% confidence interval.
Transcribed Image Text:An insurance company assumes that the number of claims in a year has a Poisson distribution of mean A and that this number is independent from year to year. Suppose that a Assume that an insured chosen randomly from a portfolio has the following number of claims: 4, 0, 1, 2, 3, 0, 0, 1, 1, 0. a) Find a conjugate a priori density for A knowing that the company estimates as more frequently 2 claims a year and that no more than 5 claims are acceptable in a year with a probability 0.97 b) Determine a posteriori credibility interval at 99%. c) Obtain the marginal distribution of the number of claims and predict the number of claims in the following year using a 95% confidence interval.
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