According to the statistics, among the students coming back from UK and USA, 1% are infected by COVID-19. They all take the saliva test with accuracy 99%. Suppose a particular student's saliva test is negative. A layman makes the following interpretation. The proba- bility that the student is infected in the first place is 0.01 (i.e., 1%). Since the test independently indicates that he is not infected and the error probability of the test is 0.01 (i.e., 1%), the actual probability of the student being infected is 0.01 × 0.01 = 0.01%. Comment on his interpretation.
According to the statistics, among the students coming back from UK and USA, 1% are infected by COVID-19. They all take the saliva test with accuracy 99%. Suppose a particular student's saliva test is negative. A layman makes the following interpretation. The proba- bility that the student is infected in the first place is 0.01 (i.e., 1%). Since the test independently indicates that he is not infected and the error probability of the test is 0.01 (i.e., 1%), the actual probability of the student being infected is 0.01 × 0.01 = 0.01%. Comment on his interpretation.
MATLAB: An Introduction with Applications
6th Edition
ISBN:9781119256830
Author:Amos Gilat
Publisher:Amos Gilat
Chapter1: Starting With Matlab
Section: Chapter Questions
Problem 1P
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Transcribed Image Text:According to the statistics, among the students coming back from UK
and USA, 1% are infected by COVID-19. They all take the saliva
test with accuracy 99%. Suppose a particular student's saliva test is
negative. A layman makes the following interpretation. The proba-
bility that the student is infected in the first place is 0.01 (i.e., 1%).
Since the test independently indicates that he is not infected and the
error probability of the test is 0.01 (i.e., 1%), the actual probability
of the student being infected is 0.01 × 0.01 =
interpretation.
0.01%. Comment on his
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