a. Use the expected value approach to determine the optimal Alternative and its expected value. b. Compute the expected value with perfect information (i.e., expected value under certainty). c. Compute the expected value of perfect information (EVPI).

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1. A decision maker faced with four decision alternatives and four states of
nature develops the following profit payoff table.
State 1
State 3
State 2
9
10
8
10
State 4
5
7
11
13
14
11
Alternative 1
10
10
10
Alternative 2
9
8
Alternative 3
Alternative 4
11
The decision maker obtains information that enables the following probabilities to
be estimated
State 1
0.4
State 2
0.2
State 3
0.3
State 4
0.1
Probability
a. Use the expected value approach to determine the optimal Alternative and its
expected value.
b. Compute the expected value with perfect information (i.e., expected value
under certainty).
c. Compute the expected value of perfect information (EVPI).
Transcribed Image Text:1. A decision maker faced with four decision alternatives and four states of nature develops the following profit payoff table. State 1 State 3 State 2 9 10 8 10 State 4 5 7 11 13 14 11 Alternative 1 10 10 10 Alternative 2 9 8 Alternative 3 Alternative 4 11 The decision maker obtains information that enables the following probabilities to be estimated State 1 0.4 State 2 0.2 State 3 0.3 State 4 0.1 Probability a. Use the expected value approach to determine the optimal Alternative and its expected value. b. Compute the expected value with perfect information (i.e., expected value under certainty). c. Compute the expected value of perfect information (EVPI).
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