A. Express the indicated degree of likelihood as a probability value. _1. You have a 50-50 chance of choosing the correct road. _2. There is a 20% chance of rain tomorrow. 3. You have a snowball's chance in hell of marrying my daughter. _4. There is a 90% chance of snow tomorrow. _5. You have one chance in ten of being correct.

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LEARNING ACTIVITY
A. Express the indicated degree of likelihood as a probability value.
_1. You have a 50-50 chance of choosing the correct road.
_2. There is a 20% chance of rain tomorrow.
_3. You have a snowball's chance in hell of marrying my daughter.
_4. There is a 90% chance of snow tomorrow.
5. You have one chance in ten of being correct.
B. Identify the probability values.
_6. What is the probability of an event that is certain to occur?
_7. What is the probability of an impossible event?
_8. A sample space consists of 10 separate events that are equally
likely. What is the probability of each?
_9. On a true false test, what is the probability of answering a question
correctly if you make a random guess?
_10. On a multiple-choice test with five possible answers for each
question, what is the probability of answering a question correctly
if you make a random guess?
C. In page 6 of this lesson, we gave an example that included a list of the
eight outcomes that are possible when a couple has three children.
Refer to that list, and find the probability of each event.
_11. Among three children, there is exactly one girl.
_12. Among three children, there are exactly two girls.
D. Page 6 of this lesson included a table summarizing the gender outcomes
for a couple planning to have three children.
_13. Construct a similar table for a couple planning to have two
children.
_14. Assuming that the outcomes listed are equally likely, find the
probability of getting two girls.
15. Find the probability of getting exactly one child of each gender.
Transcribed Image Text:LEARNING ACTIVITY A. Express the indicated degree of likelihood as a probability value. _1. You have a 50-50 chance of choosing the correct road. _2. There is a 20% chance of rain tomorrow. _3. You have a snowball's chance in hell of marrying my daughter. _4. There is a 90% chance of snow tomorrow. 5. You have one chance in ten of being correct. B. Identify the probability values. _6. What is the probability of an event that is certain to occur? _7. What is the probability of an impossible event? _8. A sample space consists of 10 separate events that are equally likely. What is the probability of each? _9. On a true false test, what is the probability of answering a question correctly if you make a random guess? _10. On a multiple-choice test with five possible answers for each question, what is the probability of answering a question correctly if you make a random guess? C. In page 6 of this lesson, we gave an example that included a list of the eight outcomes that are possible when a couple has three children. Refer to that list, and find the probability of each event. _11. Among three children, there is exactly one girl. _12. Among three children, there are exactly two girls. D. Page 6 of this lesson included a table summarizing the gender outcomes for a couple planning to have three children. _13. Construct a similar table for a couple planning to have two children. _14. Assuming that the outcomes listed are equally likely, find the probability of getting two girls. 15. Find the probability of getting exactly one child of each gender.
EXAMPLE:
On an ACT or SAT test, a typical question has 5 possible answers. If an
examinee makes random guess on one such question, what is the probability
that the response is wrong?
SOLUTION:
There are 5 possible outcomes or answers, and there are 4 ways to answer
incorrectly. Random guessing implies that the outcomes are equally likely,
so we apply the classical approach to get
4
= 0.8
5
P(wrong answer) =
EXAMPLE:
Find the probability that when a couple has 3 children, they will have
exactly 2 boys. Assume that boys and girls are equally likely and that the
gender of any child is not influenced by the gender of any other child.
SOLUTION:
The biggest obstacle here is correctly identifying the sample space. It
involves more than working only with the numbers 2 and 3 that were given
in the statement of the problem. The sample space consists of 8 different
ways that 3 children can occur, and we list them in the margin. Those 8
outcomes are equally likely, so we use Rule 2. Of those 8 different possible
outcomes, 3 correspond to exactly 2 boys, so
1st 2nd 3rd
boy-boy-boy
boy-boy-girl
ехаctly
boy-girl-boy
2 boys
boy-girl-girl
4 girl-boy-boy
girl-boy-girl
girl-girl-boy
girl-girl-girl
P(2 boys in 3 births) =
= 0.375
INTERPRETATION: There is a 0.375 probability that if a couple has 3
children, exactly 2 will be boys.
Transcribed Image Text:EXAMPLE: On an ACT or SAT test, a typical question has 5 possible answers. If an examinee makes random guess on one such question, what is the probability that the response is wrong? SOLUTION: There are 5 possible outcomes or answers, and there are 4 ways to answer incorrectly. Random guessing implies that the outcomes are equally likely, so we apply the classical approach to get 4 = 0.8 5 P(wrong answer) = EXAMPLE: Find the probability that when a couple has 3 children, they will have exactly 2 boys. Assume that boys and girls are equally likely and that the gender of any child is not influenced by the gender of any other child. SOLUTION: The biggest obstacle here is correctly identifying the sample space. It involves more than working only with the numbers 2 and 3 that were given in the statement of the problem. The sample space consists of 8 different ways that 3 children can occur, and we list them in the margin. Those 8 outcomes are equally likely, so we use Rule 2. Of those 8 different possible outcomes, 3 correspond to exactly 2 boys, so 1st 2nd 3rd boy-boy-boy boy-boy-girl ехаctly boy-girl-boy 2 boys boy-girl-girl 4 girl-boy-boy girl-boy-girl girl-girl-boy girl-girl-girl P(2 boys in 3 births) = = 0.375 INTERPRETATION: There is a 0.375 probability that if a couple has 3 children, exactly 2 will be boys.
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