Question from Operations and Supply Chain Management 10th edition by: ROBERTA S. RUSSELLBERNARD W. TAYLOR III ### Forecasting Student Enrollment in Operations Management**Problem Statement:**The chairperson of the department of management at Tech is aiming to predict the number of students who will enroll in operations management for the upcoming semester. This will help determine the number of sections to schedule. Below is the enrollment data collected for the past eight semesters:**Enrollment Data Table:**| Semester | Students Enrolled in OM ||----------|-------------------------|| 1 | 270 || 2 | 310 || 3 | 250 || 4 | 290 || 5 | 370 || 6 | 410 || 7 | 400 || 8 | 450 |**Tasks:**a. **Three-Semester Moving Average Forecast:** - Calculate the moving average forecast for semesters 4 through 9 using data from the previous three semesters.b. **Exponentially Smoothed Forecast:** - Compute the exponentially smoothed forecast using a smoothing constant (\(\alpha = 0.20\)) for the enrollment data.c. **Forecast Comparison Using MAD:** - Compare the accuracy of the two forecasts using the Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD) and identify which method is more accurate.

Formula for three-semester moving average: Fn+1 = (An + An-1 + An-2)/3 where F = ForecastA = Actual datan = Period Semester Actual number of Students Forecasted Number of Students 1 270 - 2 310 - 3 250 - 4 290 (250 + 310 + 270)/3 = 276.67 5 370 (290 + 250 + 310)/3 = 283.33 6 410 (370 + 290 + 250)/3 = 303.33 7 400 (410 + 370 + 290)/3 = 356.67 8 450 (400 + 410 + 370)/3 = 393.33 9 (450 + 400 + 410)/3 = 420Formula for exponential smoothing: Fn+1 = (α * An) + (1 - α) * Fn where F = ForecastA = Actual datan = Periodα = Smoothing constant (As the initial forecast is not given, we will assume it to be the same as actual data) Semester Actual number of Students Forecasted Number of Students 1 270 270 2 310 (0.2 * 270) + (1 - 0.2) * 270 = 270 3 250 (0.2 * 310) + (1 - 0.2) * 270 = 278 4 290 (0.2 * 250) + (1 - 0.2) * 278 = 272.4 5 370 (0.2 * 290) + (1 - 0.2) * 272.4 = 275.92 6 410 (0.2 * 370) + (1 - 0.2) * 275.92 = 294.74 7 400 (0.2 * 410) + (1 - 0.2) * 294.74 = 317.79 8 450 (0.2 * 400) + (1 - 0.2) * 317.79 = 334.23 9 (0.2 * 450) + (1 - 0.2) * 334.23 = 357.38 Deviation = Actual data - Forecasted Data Absolute Deviation = Absolute value of Deviation Semester Actual number of Students Forecasted Number of Students Deviation Absolute Deviation 1 270 - - - 2 310 - - - 3 250 - - - 4 290 276.67 13.33 13.33 5 370 283.33 86.67 86.67 6 410 303.33 106.67 106.67 7 400 356.67 43.33 43.33 8 450 393.33 56.67 56.67 9 - 420 - - Total 306.67 Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD) = Average of Absolute Deviations = 306.67/5 = 61.33Semester Actual number of Students Forecasted Number of Students Deviation Absolute Deviation 1 270 270 0 0 2 310 270 40 40 3 250 278 -28 28 4 290 272.4 17.6 17.6 5 370 275.92 94.08 94.08 6 410 294.74 115.26 115.26 7 400 317.79 82.21 82.21 8 450 334.23 115.77 115.77 9 - 357.38 - - Total 492.92 Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD) = Average of Absolute Deviations = 492.92/8 = 61.62MAD for three semester moving average = 61.33 MAD for exponential smoothing = 61.62 Three semester moving average is a more accurate method of forecasting as it has a lower MAD.

Business

Operations Management

a. Compute a three-semester moving average forecast for semesters 4 through 9. b. Compute the exponentially smoothed forecast (a = .20) for the enrollment data. c. Compare the two forecasts using MAD and indicate the most accurate.

a. Compute a three-semester moving average forecast for semesters 4 through 9. b. Compute the exponentially smoothed forecast (a = .20) for the enrollment data. c. Compare the two forecasts using MAD and indicate the most accurate.

Practical Management Science

6th Edition

ISBN:9781337406659

Author:WINSTON, Wayne L.

Publisher:WINSTON, Wayne L.

Chapter2: Introduction To Spreadsheet Modeling

Section: Chapter Questions

Problem 20P: Julie James is opening a lemonade stand. She believes the fixed cost per week of running the stand...

See similar textbooks

Similar questions

Q) Explain the Supply chain management in industrial ? *
3. Suppose that a logistics company is designing its offering for a manufacturer of frozen foods to deliver their products to various retailers. Assume that the logistics company follows differentiation strategy to gain competitive advantage. How would this logistics company design the following aspects of the offering in order to create value for the frozen food manufacturer? (a) Product (b) Service (c) Delivery (d) Advice
The Identify Stakeholders process can utilize which of the following? Question 4 options: Classification grids Classification cubes Directions of influence All of the above
Question 2 Using your own words and from your understanding, what is the difference between procurement logistics and production logistics?
Choose one product and make a supply chain operations model (pls include the activities on each phase) CHOSE PRODUCT: Hot Sauce Sample in the photo attached
How to manage supply chain drivers by PRAN foods Ltd? Explain elaborately.
Strategic Supply Chain management Question 1. By use of ‘PESTLE’ analysis, explain how environmental factors affect business.
Firms that indulge in price fixing: Question 46 options: a) charge different prices to different customers. b) undercut the price quoted by a seller to a buyer. c) decide how much to charge for a product. d) do not sell to two or more different buyers.
Please do fast please fast ASAP
• Demonstrate insight and evaluate the application of quality management in the 4IR supply chain process of a organisation.
Element Description Mission Amazon’s mission statement is “To be Earth’s most customer-centric company.” There are four characteristics associated with this mission statement – lowest prices, best selection of goods and services, convenience of e-commerce, and global industry leadership. Amazon’s mission statement points to having a wide selection of products to satisfy customers. Amazon’s mission underlines convenience by offering access to products and services via the Internet. Amazon’s mission statement uses the word “Earth” to represent the want of being the top leader in customer satisfactions for all nations. Reference: Gregory, Lawrence (2022). Amazon.com Inc.’s mission statement & vision statement (an analysis). https://panmore.com/amazon-com-inc-vision-statement-mission-statement-analysis Vision Amazon’s vision statement is “To become Earth’s best employer and Earth’s safest place to work.” These three characteristics are identified in Amazon’s…
Name three different ways that technology has improved the ability to manage supply chains.