a. Compute a three-semester moving average forecast for semesters 4 through 9. b. Compute the exponentially smoothed forecast (a = .20) for the enrollment data. c. Compare the two forecasts using MAD and indicate the most accurate.
a. Compute a three-semester moving average forecast for semesters 4 through 9. b. Compute the exponentially smoothed forecast (a = .20) for the enrollment data. c. Compare the two forecasts using MAD and indicate the most accurate.
Practical Management Science
6th Edition
ISBN:9781337406659
Author:WINSTON, Wayne L.
Publisher:WINSTON, Wayne L.
Chapter2: Introduction To Spreadsheet Modeling
Section: Chapter Questions
Problem 20P: Julie James is opening a lemonade stand. She believes the fixed cost per week of running the stand...
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Question from Operations and Supply Chain Management 10th edition by:
ROBERTA S. RUSSELL
BERNARD W. TAYLOR III
![### Forecasting Student Enrollment in Operations Management
**Problem Statement:**
The chairperson of the department of management at Tech is aiming to predict the number of students who will enroll in operations management for the upcoming semester. This will help determine the number of sections to schedule. Below is the enrollment data collected for the past eight semesters:
**Enrollment Data Table:**
| Semester | Students Enrolled in OM |
|----------|-------------------------|
| 1 | 270 |
| 2 | 310 |
| 3 | 250 |
| 4 | 290 |
| 5 | 370 |
| 6 | 410 |
| 7 | 400 |
| 8 | 450 |
**Tasks:**
a. **Three-Semester Moving Average Forecast:**
- Calculate the moving average forecast for semesters 4 through 9 using data from the previous three semesters.
b. **Exponentially Smoothed Forecast:**
- Compute the exponentially smoothed forecast using a smoothing constant (\(\alpha = 0.20\)) for the enrollment data.
c. **Forecast Comparison Using MAD:**
- Compare the accuracy of the two forecasts using the Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD) and identify which method is more accurate.](/v2/_next/image?url=https%3A%2F%2Fcontent.bartleby.com%2Fqna-images%2Fquestion%2F3b91253d-6cd1-478c-987b-3f2c8d885106%2F63f43fd6-3a5c-495b-aad5-388f572c2182%2F1a39ius_processed.jpeg&w=3840&q=75)
Transcribed Image Text:### Forecasting Student Enrollment in Operations Management
**Problem Statement:**
The chairperson of the department of management at Tech is aiming to predict the number of students who will enroll in operations management for the upcoming semester. This will help determine the number of sections to schedule. Below is the enrollment data collected for the past eight semesters:
**Enrollment Data Table:**
| Semester | Students Enrolled in OM |
|----------|-------------------------|
| 1 | 270 |
| 2 | 310 |
| 3 | 250 |
| 4 | 290 |
| 5 | 370 |
| 6 | 410 |
| 7 | 400 |
| 8 | 450 |
**Tasks:**
a. **Three-Semester Moving Average Forecast:**
- Calculate the moving average forecast for semesters 4 through 9 using data from the previous three semesters.
b. **Exponentially Smoothed Forecast:**
- Compute the exponentially smoothed forecast using a smoothing constant (\(\alpha = 0.20\)) for the enrollment data.
c. **Forecast Comparison Using MAD:**
- Compare the accuracy of the two forecasts using the Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD) and identify which method is more accurate.
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