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a. Calculate the simple three-month moving average forecast for periods 4 to 12.

a. Calculate the simple three-month moving average forecast for periods 4 to 12.

Practical Management Science
Practical Management Science
6th Edition
ISBN:9781337406659
Author:WINSTON, Wayne L.
Publisher:WINSTON, Wayne L.
Chapter2: Introduction To Spreadsheet Modeling
Section: Chapter Questions
Problem 20P: Julie James is opening a lemonade stand. She believes the fixed cost per week of running the stand...
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Your manager is trying to determine what forecasting method to ues. Based upon the following historical data.,calculating the following forecast and specify what procedure you would utilize.

 

Your manager is trying to determine what forecasting method to use. Based upon the following historical data, calculate the following forecast and specify what procedure you would utilize. Month Actual Demand 1 62 2 65 3 67 4 68 5 71 6 73 76 8 78 9 78 10 80 11 84 12 85 a. Calculate the simple three-month moving average forecast for periods 4 to 12. b. Calculate the weighted three-month moving average using weights of 0.50, 0.30, and 0.20 for periods 4 to 12. c. Calculate the single exponential smoothing forecast for periods 2 to 12 using an initial forecast (F1) of 61 and an a of 0.30. d. Calculate the exponential smoothing with trend component forecast for periods 2 to 12 using an initial trend forecast (T1) of 1.8, an initial exponential smoothing forecast (Fj) of 60, an a of 0.30, and a ð of 0.30. e. Calculate the mean absolute deviation (MAD) for the forecasts made by each technique in periods 4 to 12. Which forecasting method do you prefer?
Transcribed Image Text:Your manager is trying to determine what forecasting method to use. Based upon the following historical data, calculate the following forecast and specify what procedure you would utilize. Month Actual Demand 1 62 2 65 3 67 4 68 5 71 6 73 76 8 78 9 78 10 80 11 84 12 85 a. Calculate the simple three-month moving average forecast for periods 4 to 12. b. Calculate the weighted three-month moving average using weights of 0.50, 0.30, and 0.20 for periods 4 to 12. c. Calculate the single exponential smoothing forecast for periods 2 to 12 using an initial forecast (F1) of 61 and an a of 0.30. d. Calculate the exponential smoothing with trend component forecast for periods 2 to 12 using an initial trend forecast (T1) of 1.8, an initial exponential smoothing forecast (Fj) of 60, an a of 0.30, and a ð of 0.30. e. Calculate the mean absolute deviation (MAD) for the forecasts made by each technique in periods 4 to 12. Which forecasting method do you prefer?
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