A survey shows that 55% will vote yes and 45% will vote no on an issue, with a 7% margin of error. Explain whether there is a clear preference on the issue.

A First Course in Probability (10th Edition)
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ISBN:9780134753119
Author:Sheldon Ross
Publisher:Sheldon Ross
Chapter1: Combinatorial Analysis
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### Understanding Survey Results with a Margin of Error

A survey shows that 55% will vote yes and 45% will vote no on an issue, with a 7% margin of error. Explain whether there is a clear preference on the issue.

#### Explanation:

When interpreting survey results, it is crucial to consider the margin of error. The margin of error provides a range within which the true value lies. Here, the margin of error is 7%, which means the actual percentage of people who will vote yes could be as low as 48% (55% - 7%) or as high as 62% (55% + 7%). Similarly, the actual percentage of people who will vote no could be as low as 38% (45% - 7%) or as high as 52% (45% + 7%).

To determine whether there is a clear preference on the issue, we need to check if there is any overlap between the ranges for "yes" and "no" votes:
- **Yes Vote:** 48% - 62%
- **No Vote:** 38% - 52%

As you can see, there is an overlap between 48% and 52%. This overlap indicates that, within the margin of error, the true percentage of "yes" votes could be less than or equal to the true percentage of "no" votes. Therefore, with the given margin of error, there is no definitive clear preference on the issue.

In conclusion, while the survey suggests that a higher percentage of respondents will vote yes (55%) compared to no (45%), the margin of error means we cannot be confident that more people will definitely vote yes than no, indicating no clear preference on the issue.
Transcribed Image Text:### Understanding Survey Results with a Margin of Error A survey shows that 55% will vote yes and 45% will vote no on an issue, with a 7% margin of error. Explain whether there is a clear preference on the issue. #### Explanation: When interpreting survey results, it is crucial to consider the margin of error. The margin of error provides a range within which the true value lies. Here, the margin of error is 7%, which means the actual percentage of people who will vote yes could be as low as 48% (55% - 7%) or as high as 62% (55% + 7%). Similarly, the actual percentage of people who will vote no could be as low as 38% (45% - 7%) or as high as 52% (45% + 7%). To determine whether there is a clear preference on the issue, we need to check if there is any overlap between the ranges for "yes" and "no" votes: - **Yes Vote:** 48% - 62% - **No Vote:** 38% - 52% As you can see, there is an overlap between 48% and 52%. This overlap indicates that, within the margin of error, the true percentage of "yes" votes could be less than or equal to the true percentage of "no" votes. Therefore, with the given margin of error, there is no definitive clear preference on the issue. In conclusion, while the survey suggests that a higher percentage of respondents will vote yes (55%) compared to no (45%), the margin of error means we cannot be confident that more people will definitely vote yes than no, indicating no clear preference on the issue.
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