A small building contractor has recently experienced two successive years in which work opportunities exceeded the firm's capacity. The contractor must now make a decision on capacity for next year. Estimated profits under each of the two possible states of nature are as shown in the table below. Suppose after a certain amount of discussion, the contractor is able to subjectively assess the probabilities of low and high demand: P (low) = .3 and P (high) = .7. Construct a graph that will enable you to perform sensitivity analysis on the problem. Alternative Do nothing Expand Subcontract NEXT YEAR'S DEMAND Do nothing Expand Subcontract Low $50* 20 40 High $60 80 70 *Profit in $ thousands. Over what range of P (high) would the alternative of doing nothing be best? Expand? Subcontract? (Include the indifference probability in your answer ranges. Enter the lower probability in the left answer box and higher probability in the right answer box. Round your answers to 2 decimal places.) Optimal Ranges 0 to to to 00 1.00

Practical Management Science
6th Edition
ISBN:9781337406659
Author:WINSTON, Wayne L.
Publisher:WINSTON, Wayne L.
Chapter2: Introduction To Spreadsheet Modeling
Section: Chapter Questions
Problem 20P: Julie James is opening a lemonade stand. She believes the fixed cost per week of running the stand...
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Problem 5S-3
A small building contractor has recently experienced two successive years in which work opportunities exceeded the firm's capacity.
The contractor must now make a decision on capacity for next year. Estimated profits under each of the two possible states of nature
are as shown in the table below. Suppose after a certain amount of discussion, the contractor is able to subjectively assess the
probabilities of low and high demand: P (low) = 3 and P (high) = .7. Construct a graph that will enable you to perform sensitivity analysis
on the problem.
Alternative
Do nothing
Expand
Subcontract
NEXT YEAR'S
DEMAND
Do nothing
Expand
Subcontract
Low
$50*
20
40
High
$60
80
70
*Profit in $ thousands.
Over what range of P (high) would the alternative of doing nothing be best? Expand? Subcontract? (Include the indifference
probability in your answer ranges. Enter the lower probability in the left answer box and higher probability in the right answer box.
Round your answers to 2 decimal places.)
Optimal Ranges
0 to
to
to
1.00
Transcribed Image Text:Problem 5S-3 A small building contractor has recently experienced two successive years in which work opportunities exceeded the firm's capacity. The contractor must now make a decision on capacity for next year. Estimated profits under each of the two possible states of nature are as shown in the table below. Suppose after a certain amount of discussion, the contractor is able to subjectively assess the probabilities of low and high demand: P (low) = 3 and P (high) = .7. Construct a graph that will enable you to perform sensitivity analysis on the problem. Alternative Do nothing Expand Subcontract NEXT YEAR'S DEMAND Do nothing Expand Subcontract Low $50* 20 40 High $60 80 70 *Profit in $ thousands. Over what range of P (high) would the alternative of doing nothing be best? Expand? Subcontract? (Include the indifference probability in your answer ranges. Enter the lower probability in the left answer box and higher probability in the right answer box. Round your answers to 2 decimal places.) Optimal Ranges 0 to to to 1.00
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