A road between Fairbanks and Nome, Alaska, will have a most likely construction cost of $7 million per mile. Doubling this cost is considered to have a probability of 30%, and cutting it by 25% is considered to have a probability of 10%. The state’s interest rate is 4%, and the road should last 25 years before major reconstruction. What is the probability distribution of the equivalent annual construction cost per mile?

EBK HEALTH ECONOMICS AND POLICY
7th Edition
ISBN:9781337668279
Author:Henderson
Publisher:Henderson
Chapter4: Economic Evaluation In Health Care
Section: Chapter Questions
Problem 10QAP
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A road between Fairbanks and Nome, Alaska, will have a most likely construction cost of $7 million per mile. Doubling this cost is considered to have a probability of 30%, and cutting it by 25% is considered to have a probability of 10%. The state’s interest rate is 4%, and the road should last 25 years before major reconstruction. What is the probability distribution of the equivalent annual construction cost per mile?

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