A project faces three potential states of the world with a varying number of users (n): 10, 20, or 80, with probabilities 0.3, 0.5, and 0.2. Three options are available with values per user, v, of $2, $5, and $10, with total costs of 10, 50, and 200, respectively. a. Set up the table from the data. b. Find the expected value of each option. Without additional information, which option is best? c. What would be the value of perfect information about the state of the world before the decision is made? d. Suppose the decision maker could purchase information that would reveal, prior to making the decision, whether the number of users will be more than 10 but provide no other insight. What is this information worth?

A First Course in Probability (10th Edition)
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Chapter1: Combinatorial Analysis
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A project faces three potential states of the world with a varying number of users (n): 10, 20, or 80, with probabilities 0.3, 0.5, and 0.2. Three options are available with values per user, v, of $2, $5, and $10, with total costs of 10, 50, and 200, respectively.

a. Set up the table from the data.

b. Find the expected value of each option. Without additional information, which option is best?

c. What would be the value of perfect information about the state of the world before the decision is made?

d. Suppose the decision maker could purchase information that would reveal, prior to making the decision, whether the number of users will be more than 10 but provide no other insight. What is this information worth?

 

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