a) Probability of a loss more than 50 lakhs b) 97.5% CreditVaR c) 97.5% Credit Expected Shortfall

A First Course in Probability (10th Edition)
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Chapter1: Combinatorial Analysis
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1. Consider a portfolio of 1.4 Crore with 4 bonds A, B, C and D, with probabilities of
default (over the next six months) given below:
Issuer
Exposure (in lakhs)
Probability
А
30
0.2
B
40
0.1
40
0.05
D
30
0.3
Assume that recovery in case of default is 50% and default events are independent
across issuers. Based on this, compute the following
a) Probability of a loss more than 50 lakhs
b) 97.5% CreditVaR
c) 97.5% Credit Expected Shortfall
Transcribed Image Text:1. Consider a portfolio of 1.4 Crore with 4 bonds A, B, C and D, with probabilities of default (over the next six months) given below: Issuer Exposure (in lakhs) Probability А 30 0.2 B 40 0.1 40 0.05 D 30 0.3 Assume that recovery in case of default is 50% and default events are independent across issuers. Based on this, compute the following a) Probability of a loss more than 50 lakhs b) 97.5% CreditVaR c) 97.5% Credit Expected Shortfall
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