A physician has diagnosed a patient as having either hepatitis or liver cancer (but not both). Statistics reveal that hepatitis occurs in the general population twice as frequently as liver cancer. Thus, the physician tentatively concludes that the patient probably has hepatitis. Later the physician conducts a test on the patient that turns out positive. On this test, nine out of ten cases of liver cancer trigger a positive outcome, and one out of six cases of hepatitis trigger a positive outcome. What is the new probability that the patient has liver cancer? (Hint: For this exercise, use Bayes's theorem.)

A First Course in Probability (10th Edition)
10th Edition
ISBN:9780134753119
Author:Sheldon Ross
Publisher:Sheldon Ross
Chapter1: Combinatorial Analysis
Section: Chapter Questions
Problem 1.1P: a. How many different 7-place license plates are possible if the first 2 places are for letters and...
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A physician has diagnosed a patient as having either hepatitis or liver cancer (but not both). Statistics reveal that hepatitis occurs in the general population twice as frequently as liver cancer. Thus, the physician tentatively concludes that the patient probably has hepatitis. Later the physician conducts a test on the patient that turns out positive. On this test, nine out of ten cases of liver cancer trigger a positive outcome, and one out of six cases of hepatitis trigger a positive outcome. What is the new probability that the patient has liver cancer? (Hint: For this exercise, use Bayes's theorem.)

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