A new medical test has been designed to detect the presence of a certain disease. Among those who have the disease, the probability that the disease will be detected by the new test is 0.74. However, the probability that the test will erroneously indicate the presence of the disease in those who do not actually have it is 0.04. It is estimated that 14 % of the population who take this test have the disease. If the test administered to an individual is positive, what is the probability that the person actually has the disease?

A First Course in Probability (10th Edition)
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Chapter1: Combinatorial Analysis
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Problem 1.1P: a. How many different 7-place license plates are possible if the first 2 places are for letters and...
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A new medical test has been designed to detect the presence of a certain disease. Among those who have the disease, the probability that the disease will be detected by the new test is 0.74. However, the probability that the test will erroneously indicate the presence of the disease in those who do not actually have it is 0.04. It is estimated that 14 % of the population who take this test have the disease.
If the test administered to an individual is positive, what is the probability that the person actually has the disease?

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