A new treatment for a disease is being tested, to see whether it is better than the standard treatment. The existing treatment is effective on 50% of patients. It is believed initially that there is a 2/3 chance that the new treatment is effective on 75% of patients, and a 1/3 chance that the new treatment is effective on 50% of patients. In a pilot study, the new treatment is given to 20 patients selected at random, and turns out to be effective for 14 of them. What is the probability that the treatment is effective conditional on the results of the study

A First Course in Probability (10th Edition)
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Chapter1: Combinatorial Analysis
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A new treatment for a disease is being tested, to see whether it is better than the standard treatment. The existing treatment is effective on 50% of patients. It is believed initially that there is a 2/3 chance that the new treatment is effective on 75% of patients, and a 1/3 chance that the new treatment is effective on 50% of patients. In a pilot study, the new treatment is given to 20 patients selected at random, and turns out to be effective for 14 of them.

What is the probability that the treatment is effective conditional on the results of the study?

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