a manager is trying to decide whether to buy one machine or two. If only one is purchased and demand proves to be excessive, the second machine can be purchased later. some sales will be lost, however, because the lead time will be lower if both are purchased at the same time. the probability of low demand is estimated to be 0.20. the after- tax net present value of the benefits from purchasing the two machines together is $90,000 if demand is low and $180,000 if demand is high. if one machine is purchased and demand is low, the net present value is $120,000. if demand is high, the manager has 3 options. doing nothing has a net present value of $120,000, subcontracting $160,000, and buying the second machine, $140,000.  a. draw a decision tree for this probelm b how many machines should the company buy initially? what is the expected payoff for this alternative?

ENGR.ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
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ISBN:9780190931919
Author:NEWNAN
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Chapter1: Making Economics Decisions
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a manager is trying to decide whether to buy one machine or two. If only one is purchased and demand proves to be excessive, the second machine can be purchased later. some sales will be lost, however, because the lead time will be lower if both are purchased at the same time. the probability of low demand is estimated to be 0.20. the after- tax net present value of the benefits from purchasing the two machines together is $90,000 if demand is low and $180,000 if demand is high. if one machine is purchased and demand is low, the net present value is $120,000. if demand is high, the manager has 3 options. doing nothing has a net present value of $120,000, subcontracting $160,000, and buying the second machine, $140,000. 

a. draw a decision tree for this probelm

b how many machines should the company buy initially? what is the expected payoff for this alternative?

Expert Solution
Introduction:

The expected payoff is the amount that an individual expects to gain from a specific investment after considering all alternatives. This is calculated by subtracting the possibility of loss from the possibility of gain. In the long run, expected value is a measure of what you should expect to get per game. A game's payoff is the expected value minus the cost of the game.

 

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