A flow of claims arriving at an insurance company is represented by a homogeneous Poisson process N in continuous time. (For now, we just count the number of claims arrived by time t.) Suppose that the mean inter-arrival time is equal to 1/A, where X is a positive parameter. Let the unit of time be an hour. Question 17 Suppose it is 10 a.m. now, and the last claim had arrived at 9:00 a.m. What is the probability that the inter-arrival time between the last and the next claim will be not smaller than 2 hours? (In other words, after 9:00 a.m. you will wait for the next claim at least 2 hours, but your present time is 10am, and you do know when the last claim arrived.) 2e-A et - e-d e-21 e-t

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A flow of claims arriving at an insurance company is represented by a homogeneous Poisson process Nt in continuous time. (For
now, we just count the number of claims arrived by time t.) Suppose that the mean inter-arrival time is equal to 1/λ, where X is a
positive parameter. Let the unit of time be an hour.
Question 17
Suppose it is 10 a.m. now, and the last claim had arrived at 9:00 a.m. What is the probability that the inter-arrival time between the
last and the next claim will be not smaller than 2 hours? (In other words, after 9:00 a.m. you will wait for the next claim at least 2
hours, but your present time is 10am, and you do know when the last claim arrived. )
2e-1
et - e-t
e-21
e-1
Question 18
Suppose it is 10 a.m. now, and the last claim had arrived at 9:00 a.m.. What is the probability that there will be exactly three claims
between 9:30 a.m. and 1 p.m.?
-4X
32 1³ e
27X³e-3x
2/A³e-3A
8
373 X ³ - 7 1
48
Transcribed Image Text:A flow of claims arriving at an insurance company is represented by a homogeneous Poisson process Nt in continuous time. (For now, we just count the number of claims arrived by time t.) Suppose that the mean inter-arrival time is equal to 1/λ, where X is a positive parameter. Let the unit of time be an hour. Question 17 Suppose it is 10 a.m. now, and the last claim had arrived at 9:00 a.m. What is the probability that the inter-arrival time between the last and the next claim will be not smaller than 2 hours? (In other words, after 9:00 a.m. you will wait for the next claim at least 2 hours, but your present time is 10am, and you do know when the last claim arrived. ) 2e-1 et - e-t e-21 e-1 Question 18 Suppose it is 10 a.m. now, and the last claim had arrived at 9:00 a.m.. What is the probability that there will be exactly three claims between 9:30 a.m. and 1 p.m.? -4X 32 1³ e 27X³e-3x 2/A³e-3A 8 373 X ³ - 7 1 48
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