A film producer is evaluating a script by a new screenwriter. The producer knows that the probability of a play by a new screenwriter being a success is 40 percent, and the probability of it being a failure is 60 percent. The producer estimates that the profit will be $30 million if the play is a hit, but there will be a loss of $10 million if the play is a failure. What is the expected profit associated with the producer's decision if the producer uses the expected value strategy? $6 million $10 million $12 million $3.4 million O Negative $6 million

A film producer is evaluating a script by a new screenwriter. The producer knows that the probability of a play by a new screenwriter being a success is 40 percent, and the probability of it being a failure is 60 percent. The producer estimates that the profit will be $30 million if the play is a hit, but there will be a loss of $10 million if the play is a failure. What is the expected profit associated with the producer's decision if the producer uses the expected value strategy? $6 million $10 million $12 million $3.4 million O Negative $6 million

Managerial Economics: A Problem Solving Approach

5th Edition

ISBN:9781337106665

Author:Luke M. Froeb, Brian T. McCann, Michael R. Ward, Mike Shor

Publisher:Luke M. Froeb, Brian T. McCann, Michael R. Ward, Mike Shor

Chapter17: Making Decisions With Uncertainty

Section: Chapter Questions

Problem 3MC

See similar textbooks

Similar questions

A new company is offering its shares for sale in an initial public offering (IPO) through an auction. There is a 50% probability that the company will be very successful, in which case each share is worth $28. Otherwise, each share is worth $0. You are competing with professional investors such as hedge funds that know if the company will be successful or not. Part 1If you bid $14 per share, what is your expected return?
7
A6
2
1. A dealer decides to sell a rare book by means of an English auction with a reservation price of 54. There are two bidders. The dealer believes that there are only three possible values, 90, 54, and 45, that each bidder’s willingness to pay might take. Each bidder has a probability of 1/3 of having each of these willingnesses to pay, and the probabilities for each of the two bidders are independent of the other’s valuation. Assuming that the two bidders bid rationally and do not collude, the dealer’s expected revenue is approximately ______. 2. A seller knows that there are two bidders for the object he is selling. He believes that with probability 1/2, one has a buyer value of 5 and the other has a buyer value of 10 and with probability 1/2, one has a buyer value of 8 and the other has a buyer value of 15. He knows that bidders will want to buy the object so long as they can get it for their buyer value or less. He sells it in an English auction with a reserve price which he must…
1. Suppose a company can select among two decisions (d1 and d2) and face three states of nature (s1, s2 and s3) with the following payoff table: Decision s1 s2 s3 d1 d2 150 200 200 50 200 500 The probabilities of s1, s2, and s3 are unknown. Using the optimistic approach, what is the optimal decision and what is the value of the payoff? Place the optimal decision in the first answer box and the maximum payoff used to arrive at this decision in the second. Question 6 options: 2. Suppose a company can select among two decisions (d1 and d2) and face three states of nature (s1, s2 and s3) with the following payoff table: Decision s1 s2 s3 d1 d2 150 200 200 50 200 500 The probabilities of s1, s2, and s3 are unknown. Using the conservative approach, what is the optimal decision and what is the value of the payoff? Place the optimal decision in the first answer box and the maximum payoff used to derive this solution in the second. Question 7 options: 8 3. Suppose a company must consider two…
1. Individual Problems 18-1 You hold an oral, or English, auction among three bidders. You estimate that each bidder has a value of either $88 or $110 for the item, and you attach probabilities to each value of 50%. The winning bidder must pay a price equal to the second highest bid. The following table lists the eight possible combinations for bidder values. Each combination is equally likely to occur. On the following table, indicate the price paid by the winning bidder. Combination Number Bidder 1 Value Bidder 2 Value Bidder 3 Value Probability Price ($) ($) ($) 1 $88 $88 $88 0.125 2 $88 $88 $110 0.125 3 $88 $110 $88 0.125 4 $88 $110 $110 0.125 5 $110 $88 $88 0.125 6 $110 $88 $110 0.125 7 $110 $110 $88 0.125 8 $110 $110 $110 0.125 The expected price paid is . Suppose that bidders 1 and 2 collude and would be willing to bid up to a maximum of their values, but the two bidders…
Im confused on how to complete this
what is the risk
12. Over the last decade, robotic-drone a research and development company has researched in new drone technology for home delivery. Their sales department considers that they could sell as many as $90 million per year with a probability of 20%. With a most likely value of $76 million with a probability of 45% and a lowest value of $50 million. a. Determine the expected value of their sales. b. The sales department estimates that they could maintain this sales rhythm for 4 years with a probability of 67% or that this sales rhythm could be maintained for 8 years. Determine the Expected Value for the PW if the company considers a yearly interest rate of 10%
Many decision problems have the following simplestructure. A decision maker has two possible decisions, 1 and 2. If decision 1 is made, a sure cost of c isincurred. If decision 2 is made, there are two possibleoutcomes, with costs c1 and c2 and probabilities p and1 2 p. We assume that c1 , c , c2. The idea is thatdecision 1, the riskless decision, has a moderate cost,whereas decision 2, the risky decision, has a low costc1 or a high cost c2.a. Calculate the expected cost from the riskydecision.b. List as many scenarios as you can think of thathave this structure. (Here’s an example to get youstarted. Think of insurance, where you pay a surepremium to avoid a large possible loss.) For eachof these scenarios, indicate whether you wouldbase your decision on EMV or on expected utility
Q3/ The probability that a consumer will rate a new antipollution device for cars What are the probabilities that it will rate the device (a) very poor, poor, fair, or good; (b) good, very good, or excellent? Rate Poor Fair Very good Excellent Very poor Good Probability 0.07 0.12 0.17 0.32 0.21 0.11