A disease afflicts 1 person in 1,000 in a population. A test for this disease results in 5% false positives. Assume that a random person is tested for the disease (this person is not selected for the test because there are other symptoms indicating the presence of the disease nor are there any special signs of being disease free). 1. Assume that there are no false negatives from this test. A person tests positive. What is the probability that the person truly has the disease? 2. Now assume that false negatives are 1 person in 100 in a population. What is the probability that the person truly has the disease?

A First Course in Probability (10th Edition)
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ISBN:9780134753119
Author:Sheldon Ross
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Chapter1: Combinatorial Analysis
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A disease afflicts 1 person in 1,000 in a population. A test for this disease results in 5% false positives. Assume that a random person is tested for the disease (this person is not selected for the test because there are other symptoms indicating the presence of the disease nor are there any special signs of being disease free).

1. Assume that there are no false negatives from this test. A person tests positive. What is the probability that the person truly has the disease?

2. Now assume that false negatives are 1 person in 100 in a population. What is the probability that the person truly has the disease?

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