A consultant is conducting a study for a railroad connecting the east and west of 1. Massachusetts. She predicts three possible rail passenger demand levels: low, medium and high. Three designs are available and the payoff ($1000) in each of the three demand scenarios are summarized in the table below. State of Nature (Passenger Demand Level) High P 0.3 200 -300 Low Medium Alternative P 0.2 P 0.5 Design A Design B Design C 800 -200 200 400 100 -150 300 Which design should be chosen based on each of the following decision criteria? a) Expected payoff

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A consultant is conducting a study for a railroad connecting the east and west of
1.
Massachusetts. She predicts three possible rail passenger demand levels: low, medium and
high. Three designs are available and the payoff (S1000) in each of the three demand
scenarios are summarized in the table below.
State of Nature (Passenger Demand Level)
High
P 0.3
Low
Medium
Alternative
Design A
Design B
Design C
P =0.2
800
200
100
P 0.5
-200
400
200
-300
300
-150
Which design should be chosen based on each of the following decision criteria?
a) Expected payoff
b) Most probable payoff
c) Long shot
d) Maximin
Transcribed Image Text:A consultant is conducting a study for a railroad connecting the east and west of 1. Massachusetts. She predicts three possible rail passenger demand levels: low, medium and high. Three designs are available and the payoff (S1000) in each of the three demand scenarios are summarized in the table below. State of Nature (Passenger Demand Level) High P 0.3 Low Medium Alternative Design A Design B Design C P =0.2 800 200 100 P 0.5 -200 400 200 -300 300 -150 Which design should be chosen based on each of the following decision criteria? a) Expected payoff b) Most probable payoff c) Long shot d) Maximin
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