**Analysis of Confidence Intervals in Polling****Context:**A city ballot includes a local initiative that would legalize gambling. This issue is under debate, and two different groups conduct polls to predict the outcome. The local newspaper finds that 46% of 1450 randomly selected voters plan to vote "yes." In contrast, a college Statistics class finds 45% of 200 randomly selected voters in favor. Both groups aim to create 95% confidence intervals. It is assumed that all voters know how they intend to vote and that a majority vote is needed for the initiative to pass.**Tasks:****a) Margin of Error Comparison:**Without calculating, it is noted that the Statistics class will have a larger margin of error due to the smaller sample size.**b) Confidence Interval Calculation:**- The confidence interval for the local newspaper is calculated as (43.4%, 48.6%).- The confidence interval for the college Statistics class is calculated as (38.1%, 51.9%).These intervals are rounded to one decimal place as needed.**c) Conclusion on Results:**The confidence interval obtained by the Statistics class suggests that the outcome is too close to call, given its wider range that crosses the 50% threshold. Thus, the group concludes the results are inconclusive regarding the majority requirement for passage.This exercise demonstrates how sample size affects the margin of error and the resulting confidence in predicting election outcomes.

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Answered: A city ballot includes a local…

MATLAB: An Introduction with Applications

6th Edition

ISBN:9781119256830

Author:Amos Gilat

Publisher:Amos Gilat

Chapter1: Starting With Matlab

Section: Chapter Questions

Problem 1P

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Among students at a nearby college, the proportion who say they’re interested in their congressional district’s election results has traditionally been 70%. After a series of lackluster debates on campus, a political scientist claims that the proportion, p, of students at the college who say they’re interested in their districts election results is now less than 70%. A pill is commissioned, and 154 out of random sample of 230 students at the college say they’re interested in their districts election results. Is there enough evidence to support the political scientist’s claim at the 0.05 level of significance? Perform a one-tailed test. Then complete the parts below. Carry your intermediate computations to three or more decimal places and round your answers as specified in the table.
Through polling, it was estimated that the percent of people who will vote for a particular candidate in an upcoming election is 36.2%. If the margin of error is 3.5, give the confidence interval for the percentage of people who will vote for the candidate in the upcoming election.% to %
A study considered the question, “Are you a registered voter?” Accuracy of response was confirmed by a check of city voting records. Two methods of survey were used: a face-to-face interview and a telephone interview. A random sample of 93 people were asked the voter registration question face-to-face. Seventy-nine respondents gave accurate answers. Another random sample of 83 people was asked the same question during a telephone interview. Seventy-four respondents gave accurate answers. Assume that the samples are representative of the general population. Test the claim that there is a difference in the proportion of accurate responses from face-to-face compared with telephone interviews. Use alpha=.05 What is the null hypothesis? What is the alternative hypothesis? What distribution are you using? What test are you running? What is your conclusion?
As a destination marketing director, you found that TV executives used the guideline that 25% of the viewers were watching Fox cable network, 22% watching NBC and CBS, and 19% watching ABC. The remaining 12% were watching other cable networks such as CNN and MSNBC on a weekday night. A random sample of 500 viewers in the D.C. metro area last Tuesday night showed 109 homes were tuned in to the Fox station, 125 homes tuning in to NBC affiliate, 100 homes tuning in to CBS affiliate and 81 homes tuning in to ABC affiliate. 85 homes were watching CNN and NSNBC cable stations. At the 0.05 significant level, can we conclude that the guideline is still reasonable?
A political researcher takes a survey of 310 randomly selected registered voters in Orlando, and each person was asked who they plan on voting for in the 2024 presidential election. 110 said they plan on voting for Candidate A, 185 said they plan on voting for Candidate B, and 15 were unsure or plan to vote for another candidate. The researcher wants to construct a 95% confidence interval for the proportion of all registered voters in Orlando who plan to vote for Candidate B. What is the point estimate? Round final answer to 3 decimal places.
In recent years, many states have enacted tougher voter identification laws requiring a government issued photo ID. Proponents claim that these laws are necessary to reduce voter fraud. Opponents claim that voter fraud is rare and that since as many as 11% of eligible voters do not have the required identification, these tougher laws will discourage millions of minorities and low-income Americans from voting. The Washington Post conducted a national poll (July 7-19, 2012) and found that 1558 out of 2064 adults supported the tougher voter ID laws. 1)Construct a 95% confidence interval for the proportion of adults who approve of tougher voter ID laws. Document your work in the space provided below. Document how you computed the margin of error and the confidence interval in the space provided below. Round all numbers to 4 decimal places. 2)Is it likely that three-fourths of adults approve of these new laws?
A construction company submitted a bid for a large, public construction project. The company’s management initially felt they had a 50-50 chance of getting the project. However, the department to which the bid was submitted subsequently requested additional information on the bid submitted by this company. Past experience indicates that for 75% of the successful bids but only for 40% of the unsuccessful bids the agency requested such additional information. Question: Given that the construction company was asked for additional information, what is the probability that it will get the project?
2) The Director of NJ Division of Elections wants to determine the proportion of college students who vote in elections. In a random sample of 250 college students, it was found that 120 students voted in the last election. Construct a 95% confidence interval for the population proportion of college students who vote in elections. Interpret your results.
The last poll of 144 voters in Iowa shows that 19% of voters will vote for him in the Iowa Presidential Caucus. What is the 99% confidence interval of his support level in Iowa?
Exit polling is a popular technique used to determine the outcome of an election prior to results being tallied. Suppose a referendum to increase funding for education is on the ballot in a large town (voting population over 100,000). An exit poll of 300 voters finds that 147 voted for the referendum. How likely are the results of your sample if the population proportion of voters in the town in favor of the referendum is 0.51? Based on your result, comment on the dangers of using exit polling to call elections.

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