A carry trade is a trading strategy that involves borrowing low-interest currencies and buying high-interest currencies, with results that can be profitable. During much of the 2000s, Japanese yen interest rates were close to zero while Australia’s interest rates were positive. Investors pursued a carry trade strategy, investing billions in Australian dollars and driving that currency’s value up against the yen. According to the interest parity condition, such a strategy should not be systematically profitable: On average, shouldn’t the interest advantage of Australian dollars be wiped out by relative appreciation of the yen? Is the prevalence of the carry trade evidence that interest parity is wrong? What is the risk of investing in such a strategy? Incorporate the Japanese Yen/Australian Dollar exchange rate history in your discussion.
A carry trade is a trading strategy that involves borrowing low-interest currencies and buying high-interest currencies, with results that can be profitable. During much of the 2000s, Japanese yen interest rates were close to zero while Australia’s interest rates were positive. Investors pursued a carry trade strategy, investing billions in Australian dollars and driving that currency’s value up against the yen. According to the interest parity condition, such a strategy should not be systematically profitable: On average, shouldn’t the interest advantage of Australian dollars be wiped out by relative appreciation of the yen? Is the prevalence of the carry trade evidence that interest parity is wrong? What is the risk of investing in such a strategy? Incorporate the Japanese Yen/Australian Dollar exchange rate history in your discussion.
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