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a) Calculate the expected durations, variance, and standard deviation for each project activity b) Using Table 1 and Table 2, determine the probability of completing the project in 53 weeks. c) Using clearly annotated diagrams show the above project network as (i) Activity on Arrow (ii) Activity on Node

a) Calculate the expected durations, variance, and standard deviation for each project activity b) Using Table 1 and Table 2, determine the probability of completing the project in 53 weeks. c) Using clearly annotated diagrams show the above project network as (i) Activity on Arrow (ii) Activity on Node

Practical Management Science
Practical Management Science
6th Edition
ISBN:9781337406659
Author:WINSTON, Wayne L.
Publisher:WINSTON, Wayne L.
Chapter2: Introduction To Spreadsheet Modeling
Section: Chapter Questions
Problem 20P: Julie James is opening a lemonade stand. She believes the fixed cost per week of running the stand...
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Activity (C) and (C) are both correct 

Question 1 Table 1 gives the optimistic, most likely, and pessimistic time estimates in weeks for each activity (represented as event or alphabet as may be appropriate). ACIVITY DO NOT OPEN THIS PAGE UNTIL YOU HAVE BEEN TOLD TO DO SO (1-2) (A) 2-3 (B) 2-4 (C) 3-5 (C) 4-5 (D) 5-6(E) NUMBER OF PAGES INCLUDING THE COVER PAGES 3 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 NOTE: O = optimistic durations in weeks M = most probable (likely) durations in weeks P = pessimistic durations in weeks OPTIMISTIC (0) 8 6 14 Areas 2 6 4 Table 2. Area under one-half the normal distribution for various durations expressed as Z, where Z = (D-Te)/ST Z 0.0 0.040 0.079 0.118 0.155 0.192 0.226 0.258 0.288 0.316 Z 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4 MOST LIKELY (M) 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.8 1.9 12 12 20 4 12 10 Area 0.341 0.364 0.385 0.403 0.419 0.433 0.475 0.455 0.464 0.471 Z 2.0 2.1 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.5 2.6 PESSIMISTIC 2.7 2.8 2.9 3.0 18 16 24 8 20 14 Area 0.477 0.482 0.486 0.489 0.492 0.494 0.495 0.496 0.497 0.4998 0.4999 As the curve is symmetrical, the same value occurs for -Z as for + Z. Also note that the total area under one-half the curve equals 0.5 a) Calculate the expected durations, variance, and standard deviation for each project activity b) Using Table 1 and Table 2, determine the probability of completing the project in 53 weeks. c) Using clearly annotated diagrams show the above project network as (i) Activity on Arrow (ii) Activity on Node
Transcribed Image Text:Question 1 Table 1 gives the optimistic, most likely, and pessimistic time estimates in weeks for each activity (represented as event or alphabet as may be appropriate). ACIVITY DO NOT OPEN THIS PAGE UNTIL YOU HAVE BEEN TOLD TO DO SO (1-2) (A) 2-3 (B) 2-4 (C) 3-5 (C) 4-5 (D) 5-6(E) NUMBER OF PAGES INCLUDING THE COVER PAGES 3 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 NOTE: O = optimistic durations in weeks M = most probable (likely) durations in weeks P = pessimistic durations in weeks OPTIMISTIC (0) 8 6 14 Areas 2 6 4 Table 2. Area under one-half the normal distribution for various durations expressed as Z, where Z = (D-Te)/ST Z 0.0 0.040 0.079 0.118 0.155 0.192 0.226 0.258 0.288 0.316 Z 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4 MOST LIKELY (M) 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.8 1.9 12 12 20 4 12 10 Area 0.341 0.364 0.385 0.403 0.419 0.433 0.475 0.455 0.464 0.471 Z 2.0 2.1 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.5 2.6 PESSIMISTIC 2.7 2.8 2.9 3.0 18 16 24 8 20 14 Area 0.477 0.482 0.486 0.489 0.492 0.494 0.495 0.496 0.497 0.4998 0.4999 As the curve is symmetrical, the same value occurs for -Z as for + Z. Also note that the total area under one-half the curve equals 0.5 a) Calculate the expected durations, variance, and standard deviation for each project activity b) Using Table 1 and Table 2, determine the probability of completing the project in 53 weeks. c) Using clearly annotated diagrams show the above project network as (i) Activity on Arrow (ii) Activity on Node
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