a) b) c) d) e) Metro Estate Agency operates several offices in a large city, specialising in property sales and lettings. The company has grown rapidly over the last year or so and has been expanding its business to accommodate the increasing demand for its services. As an aid in planning, a forecast of the next three months' revenue is needed each month. Revenue data (in £100) for the last 17 months are given below. Month t Revenue Yt 1 999 2 1123 3 1503 4 1762 5 2126 6 2315 7 2239 10 11 12 13 14 15 Month t Revenue Yt 3024 3467 3528 3441 3588 3746 Table 2: Monthly revenue of Metro Estate Agency 16 3628 8 2655 17 4021 9 2787 Plot the time series and discuss why Holt's two parameter method would be appropriate for forecasting monthly revenue of Metro Estate Agency. Using the initial values mo-900, bo=180 and smoothing constants a=0.2, p=0.3 carry out double exponential smoothing (Holt's method) in Excel and forecast the company's revenue for the next three months. Hand in all your Excel work (clear readable version), including formulae, with your coursework. Superimpose the smoothed estimate of the mean mt on your time series plot and comment on how the estimated mean recaptures the data. Hand in all your Excel work with your coursework. Plot the successive one-period-ahead predictions (for each time point) on the time series plot and comment on how well they capture the features in the observed data. Hand in all your Excel work with your coursework. If the revenue for the month 18 were £410,000 what would be your revised forecast for the next two months? Give details of your calculations.
a) b) c) d) e) Metro Estate Agency operates several offices in a large city, specialising in property sales and lettings. The company has grown rapidly over the last year or so and has been expanding its business to accommodate the increasing demand for its services. As an aid in planning, a forecast of the next three months' revenue is needed each month. Revenue data (in £100) for the last 17 months are given below. Month t Revenue Yt 1 999 2 1123 3 1503 4 1762 5 2126 6 2315 7 2239 10 11 12 13 14 15 Month t Revenue Yt 3024 3467 3528 3441 3588 3746 Table 2: Monthly revenue of Metro Estate Agency 16 3628 8 2655 17 4021 9 2787 Plot the time series and discuss why Holt's two parameter method would be appropriate for forecasting monthly revenue of Metro Estate Agency. Using the initial values mo-900, bo=180 and smoothing constants a=0.2, p=0.3 carry out double exponential smoothing (Holt's method) in Excel and forecast the company's revenue for the next three months. Hand in all your Excel work (clear readable version), including formulae, with your coursework. Superimpose the smoothed estimate of the mean mt on your time series plot and comment on how the estimated mean recaptures the data. Hand in all your Excel work with your coursework. Plot the successive one-period-ahead predictions (for each time point) on the time series plot and comment on how well they capture the features in the observed data. Hand in all your Excel work with your coursework. If the revenue for the month 18 were £410,000 what would be your revised forecast for the next two months? Give details of your calculations.
MATLAB: An Introduction with Applications
6th Edition
ISBN:9781119256830
Author:Amos Gilat
Publisher:Amos Gilat
Chapter1: Starting With Matlab
Section: Chapter Questions
Problem 1P
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Transcribed Image Text:a)
b)
c)
d)
e)
Metro Estate Agency operates several offices in a large city, specialising in property
sales and lettings. The company has grown rapidly over the last year or so and has been
expanding its business to accommodate the increasing demand for its services. As an
aid in planning, a forecast of the next three months' revenue is needed each month.
Revenue data (in £100) for the last 17 months are given below.
Month t
Revenue Yt
Month t
Revenue Yt
1
999
2
1123
3
1503
4
1762
5
2126
6
2315
7
2239
10
11
12
13
14
15
3024 3467 3528 3441 3588 3746
Table 2: Monthly revenue of Metro Estate Agency
16
3628
8
2655
17
4021
9
2787
Plot the time series and discuss why Holt's two parameter method would be
appropriate for forecasting monthly revenue of Metro Estate Agency.
Using the initial values mo-900, bo=180 and smoothing constants a=0.2, p=0.3 carry
out double exponential smoothing (Holt's method) in Excel and forecast the company's
revenue for the next three months. Hand in all your Excel work (clear readable version),
including formulae, with your coursework.
Superimpose the smoothed estimate of the mean mt on your time series plot and
comment on how the estimated mean recaptures the data. Hand in all your Excel work
with your coursework.
Plot the successive one-period-ahead predictions (for each time point) on the time series
plot and comment on how well they capture the features in the observed data. Hand in
all your Excel work with your coursework.
If the revenue for the month 18 were £410,000 what would be your revised forecast for
the next two months? Give details of your calculations.
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