A B 1 Trend and Seasonal Effects 2 3 Step 1. Complete tables to right 4 and below filling in yellow cells 5 with appropriate formulas. 6 7 8 α = 0.3 Level 9 δε 0.2 Trend 10 ? = 0.5 Season 11 12 E F G H K M N P Q R S T W X Y Actual Sales (Y) Season Year Average Year 1 2 3 4 1 1 2 2 3 3 4 4 Average of Season Initial Values when M 4 (Quarterly): average Actual Base Value Trend Season 13 Period (Y) (L) (T) (S) Forecast Error Squared Error Orange cells are the initial values that must also be computed. S₂ = average (YYY ■L₁ = Ys / S₁ S3 = = average T- 14 1 500 Use formula for seasonal value: Ssy (Ys/Ls) + (1-) S5-4 15 2 560 16 3 690 17 4 900 18 5 524 19 6 589 20 7 707 21 8 930 22 9 600 23 10 630 24 11 707 25 12 1020 26 13 613 27 14 641 The mend and seasonal forecasting model is am extension of the Trend Adjusted Exponential Smoothing model. In addition to a trend, the model also adds a smoothed adjustment for seasonality. This template is a quarterly model, where the number of seasons is set to 4. There are three smoothing constants associated with this model. Alpha is the smoothing constant for the basic level, delta smoothes the trend, and gamma smoothes the seasonal index. Again, the weighting or smoothing factors, alpha, delta and gamma can never exceed 1 and higher values put more weight on more recent time periode L₁ =α (Y/S) + (1-α) (LT) T₁ =ẞ (LL) + (1-ẞ) T¸1 Sy (YL)+(1-y) STM Fk (L+KT)* S₁.Mk Note 1: Y is actual demand, not "year". Note 2: k is # of periods in the past (typically 1) 28 15 738 29 16 1079 30 17 31 MSE 82 83 Step 2. After calculating with the given alpha, beta and gamma, find the minimum 34 MSE by optimizing alpha, beta, and gamma using Excel's Solver tool. Submit your 85 work with only the resulting MINIMUM MSE solution.
A B 1 Trend and Seasonal Effects 2 3 Step 1. Complete tables to right 4 and below filling in yellow cells 5 with appropriate formulas. 6 7 8 α = 0.3 Level 9 δε 0.2 Trend 10 ? = 0.5 Season 11 12 E F G H K M N P Q R S T W X Y Actual Sales (Y) Season Year Average Year 1 2 3 4 1 1 2 2 3 3 4 4 Average of Season Initial Values when M 4 (Quarterly): average Actual Base Value Trend Season 13 Period (Y) (L) (T) (S) Forecast Error Squared Error Orange cells are the initial values that must also be computed. S₂ = average (YYY ■L₁ = Ys / S₁ S3 = = average T- 14 1 500 Use formula for seasonal value: Ssy (Ys/Ls) + (1-) S5-4 15 2 560 16 3 690 17 4 900 18 5 524 19 6 589 20 7 707 21 8 930 22 9 600 23 10 630 24 11 707 25 12 1020 26 13 613 27 14 641 The mend and seasonal forecasting model is am extension of the Trend Adjusted Exponential Smoothing model. In addition to a trend, the model also adds a smoothed adjustment for seasonality. This template is a quarterly model, where the number of seasons is set to 4. There are three smoothing constants associated with this model. Alpha is the smoothing constant for the basic level, delta smoothes the trend, and gamma smoothes the seasonal index. Again, the weighting or smoothing factors, alpha, delta and gamma can never exceed 1 and higher values put more weight on more recent time periode L₁ =α (Y/S) + (1-α) (LT) T₁ =ẞ (LL) + (1-ẞ) T¸1 Sy (YL)+(1-y) STM Fk (L+KT)* S₁.Mk Note 1: Y is actual demand, not "year". Note 2: k is # of periods in the past (typically 1) 28 15 738 29 16 1079 30 17 31 MSE 82 83 Step 2. After calculating with the given alpha, beta and gamma, find the minimum 34 MSE by optimizing alpha, beta, and gamma using Excel's Solver tool. Submit your 85 work with only the resulting MINIMUM MSE solution.
Advanced Engineering Mathematics
10th Edition
ISBN:9780470458365
Author:Erwin Kreyszig
Publisher:Erwin Kreyszig
Chapter2: Second-order Linear Odes
Section: Chapter Questions
Problem 1RQ
Related questions
Question
Transcribed Image Text:A
B
1 Trend and Seasonal Effects
2
3 Step 1. Complete tables to right
4 and below filling in yellow cells
5 with appropriate formulas.
6
7
8
α =
0.3
Level
9
δε 0.2
Trend
10
? =
0.5
Season
11
12
E
F
G
H
K
M
N
P
Q
R
S
T
W
X
Y
Actual Sales (Y)
Season
Year Average
Year
1
2
3
4
1
1
2
2
3
3
4
4
Average of Season
Initial Values
when M 4 (Quarterly):
average
Actual
Base
Value
Trend Season
13
Period
(Y)
(L)
(T)
(S)
Forecast
Error
Squared
Error
Orange cells are the initial values that must also be
computed.
S₂ = average (YYY
■L₁ = Ys / S₁
S3 =
=
average
T-
14
1
500
Use formula for seasonal value: Ssy (Ys/Ls) + (1-) S5-4
15
2
560
16
3
690
17
4
900
18
5
524
19
6
589
20
7
707
21
8
930
22
9
600
23
10
630
24
11
707
25
12
1020
26
13
613
27
14
641
The mend and seasonal forecasting model is am
extension of the Trend Adjusted Exponential Smoothing
model. In addition to a trend, the model also adds a
smoothed adjustment for seasonality. This template is a
quarterly model, where the number of seasons is set to 4.
There are three smoothing constants associated with this
model. Alpha is the smoothing constant for the basic
level, delta smoothes the trend, and gamma smoothes the
seasonal index. Again, the weighting or smoothing
factors, alpha, delta and gamma can never exceed 1 and
higher values put more weight on more recent time
periode
L₁ =α (Y/S) + (1-α) (LT)
T₁ =ẞ (LL) + (1-ẞ) T¸1
Sy (YL)+(1-y) STM
Fk (L+KT)* S₁.Mk
Note 1: Y is actual demand, not "year".
Note 2: k is # of periods in the past (typically 1)
28
15
738
29
16
1079
30
17
31
MSE
82
83 Step 2. After calculating with the given alpha, beta and gamma, find the minimum
34 MSE by optimizing alpha, beta, and gamma using Excel's Solver tool. Submit your
85 work with only the resulting MINIMUM MSE solution.
Expert Solution
This question has been solved!
Explore an expertly crafted, step-by-step solution for a thorough understanding of key concepts.
Step by step
Solved in 2 steps with 1 images
Recommended textbooks for you
Advanced Engineering Mathematics
Advanced Math
ISBN:
9780470458365
Author:
Erwin Kreyszig
Publisher:
Wiley, John & Sons, Incorporated
Numerical Methods for Engineers
Advanced Math
ISBN:
9780073397924
Author:
Steven C. Chapra Dr., Raymond P. Canale
Publisher:
McGraw-Hill Education
Introductory Mathematics for Engineering Applicat…
Advanced Math
ISBN:
9781118141809
Author:
Nathan Klingbeil
Publisher:
WILEY
Advanced Engineering Mathematics
Advanced Math
ISBN:
9780470458365
Author:
Erwin Kreyszig
Publisher:
Wiley, John & Sons, Incorporated
Numerical Methods for Engineers
Advanced Math
ISBN:
9780073397924
Author:
Steven C. Chapra Dr., Raymond P. Canale
Publisher:
McGraw-Hill Education
Introductory Mathematics for Engineering Applicat…
Advanced Math
ISBN:
9781118141809
Author:
Nathan Klingbeil
Publisher:
WILEY
Mathematics For Machine Technology
Advanced Math
ISBN:
9781337798310
Author:
Peterson, John.
Publisher:
Cengage Learning,
